How many lead service lines will Michigan replace in 2026?

Kalshi Elections Closes Jul 1, 2027 · $1 today · $17.4K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

31,181median

22,50052,500

Median 31,181Middle half 28,125 – 35,536

How the odds have moved

Median: 31,016 on Oct 20, 31,181 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 25,000	92%	91¢	92¢	$1.09	4.8K
Above 27,500	81%	80¢	81¢	$1.23	3.9K
Above 30,000	59%	58¢	59¢	$1.69	10.4K
Above 32,500	41%	40¢	41¢	$2.44	3.8K
Above 35,000	27%	26¢	27¢	$3.70	2.6K
Above 37,500	20%	19¢	20¢	$5.00	4.2K
Above 40,000	14%	14¢	15¢	$6.67	5.3K
Above 42,500	5%	4¢	6¢	$16.67
Above 45,000	4%	3¢	4¢	$25.00
Above 47,500	3%	2¢	3¢	$33.33	96.00
Above 50,000	3%	2¢	3¢	$33.33	96.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Michigan

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2026 Midterm Elections: Trump, Obama Rally MichiganFox News · 7 h agoPresident Donald Trump is set to campaign in Michigan as Democrats deploy Barack Obama and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while a Justice Department lawsuit threatens to complicate the closely watched Alaska Senate race. President Donald Trump…
WATCH LIVE: Trump delivers remarks at rally in MichiganFox News · 3 h agoPresident Trump delivers remarks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan ahead of midterms. WATCH LIVE: Trump delivers remarks at rally in Michigan President Trump delivers remarks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan ahead of midterms.
Kyle Kuzma pushes back on Obama's Michigan rally messageYahoo Sports · 9 h agoMilwaukee Bucks forward Kyle Kuzma is speaking out about politics in his home state. The Flint, Michigan, native criticized part of former President Barack Obama's message during a Democratic campaign rally Saturday in Detroit, Yahoo!…
Obama campaigns for El-Sayed, Benson in MichiganFox News · 21 h agoThe former president showed up in Detroit on Saturday to stump for the state's Democratic ticket. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News Digital) Obama campaigns for El-Sayed, Benson in Michigan The former president showed up in Detroit on Saturday to…
Black voters UNSURE of El-Sayed in Michigan Senate raceFox News · 79 min agoBlack voters in Michigan voice their concerns about Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed as only weeks remain in the tight race. Black voters UNSURE of El-Sayed in Michigan Senate race Black voters in Michigan voice their…
Trump Claims Obama's Michigan Rally Was 'Empty': What The Photos ShowNewsweek · 3 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 09:02 AM EDT President Trump told supporters that a rally addressed by former President Barack Obama in Detroit, Michigan, was "empty" during his own rally in Georgia. Obama was in Michigan to support Democratic Senate…
Abdul El-Sayed takes swipe at Trump ahead of Michigan rallyFox News · 8 h agoDemocratic Senate nominee in Michigan Abdul El-Sayed tells reporters on eve of president's rally that Trump will praise tariffs, Iran war and 'big ugly bill' during Michigan visit. Abdul El-Sayed takes swipe at Trump ahead of Michigan…
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer says America is ready to elect a womanNBC News · 5 h agoMichigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer pushed back Sunday on comments made by former first lady Michelle Obama last year that U.S. voters aren’t ready to elect a female president. “Listen, I have got a lot of colleagues who I think are probably…
Former President Barack Obama campaigns for Michigan Democrats at Detroit rallyCBS News · 20 h agoOctober 24, 2026 / 8:27 PM EDT / CBS Detroit With a little over a week to go before the midterm elections, all eyes are on Michigan as a battleground state. Former President Barack Obama was in Detroit Saturday to drum up voter support for…
Michigan sheriff to leaves Democratic Party over shift to the leftFox News · 32 h agoSaginaw County Sheriff William Federspiel joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discusses leaving the Democratic Party and endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race. Michigan sheriff to leaves Democratic Party over shift to…
Obama throws support behind El-Sayed as early voting begins in Michigan – videothe Guardian · 7 h agoBarack Obama headlined a rally for Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for the US Senate, in Detroit on the first day of early voting in Michigan. The former US president told thousands of supporters at Cass technical high school that…
These years of Democratic leadership have failed us, Michigan gubernatorial candidate saysFox News · 21 h agoFox News These years of Democratic leadership have failed us, Michigan gubernatorial candidate says Michigan gubernatorial candidate John James discusses the key issues he’s honing in on ahead of his election on ‘The Big Weekend Show.’

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onMichigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE)

Trading closesJul 1, 2027 9:59 AM ET

Traded$17.4K (35,068 contracts)

Today$1

This week$229

At stake$1.1K

In the news116 headlines today, 691 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule is above 25,000 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions