Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba? (Before July 1, 2026)

Kalshi Economy Closes Nov 30 · $547 traded · $231 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

9%Before December 1, 2026

Before November 1, 20263%
Before December 1, 20269%

How the odds have moved

Before November 1, 2026: 5% on Oct 19, 3% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before September 1, 2026	7%			$14.29	2.4K
Before October 1, 2026	5%			$20.00	6.5K
Before November 1, 2026	3%		5¢	$20.00	179
Before December 1, 2026	9%	6¢	12¢	$8.33	543

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Mexico, Cuba

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AP says U.S. secretly built "Cuban Twitter" called ZunZuneo to thwart Cuba censorship, but was it legal?CBS News · 4 days agoUpdated on: April 3, 2014 / 10:58 AM EDT / CBS/AP WASHINGTON -- In July 2010, Joe McSpedon, a U.S. government official, flew to Barcelona to put the final touches on a secret plan to build a social media project aimed at undermining Cuba's…
Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with CIAFox News · 3 days agoPresident Donald Trump speaks in Fort Myers, Florida, about taking care of Cuba as Secretary of State Marco Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with the CIA. Rubio urges Cuban dissidents to partner with CIA President Donald Trump…
3,000 Cuban Doctors in Mexico Spark US RowThe Rio Times · 3 days agoCuban doctors in Mexico became a US trade issue on Friday 23 October 2026, when Florida Republican Maria Elvira Salazar accused Mexico of breaking the USMCA trade pact. In a letter dated Thursday 22 October to US Trade Representative…
Cuba Tops Mexico Asylum Claims at 34,634The Rio Times · 4 days agoMexico’s human rights commission counts Cubans as its largest group of refugee claimants. The estimate of 25,000 stranded in Tapachula has no named source. Cubans filed 34,634 refugee claims in Mexico in 2025, more than any other…
Rubio calls on Cubans seeking "positive change" to work with CIA: "Now is the time"CBS News · 3 days agoOctober 24, 2026 / 11:49 AM EDT / CBS News U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Cubans seeking "positive change" to work with the CIA, the latest ploy in the growing efforts from the Trump administration to remove Cuba's communist…
The 2028 crop hits New MexicoPOLITICO · 3 days agoThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. 10/24/2026 10:36 AM EDT With help from Eli Okun and Irie Sentner Good Saturday morning. This is Ali Bianco in the driver’s seat. Only 10 days left until the…
Rubio tells Cubans ‘now is the time’ to act to see political changethe Guardian · 4 days agoUS secretary of state makes comments after Trump tells US rally warships could intervene on return from Iran Marco Rubio urged Cubans seeking political change in their country to act, saying “now is the time” moments after Donald Trump…
Trump riffs on US warships, Cuba and Rubio after question from crowdFox News · 4 days agoPresident Donald Trump teases U.S. warships could stop near Cuba after Iran, and send Secretary of State Marco Rubio in to "finish the job," during a midterm rally speech Friday in Fort Myers, Florida ... Trump riffs on US warships, Cuba…
Ryan checks out Favela Mexican GrillCBS News · 3 days agoCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 7am CBS News Chicago Saturday at 9am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 7am CBS News Miami This Morning 10am CBS News New York Saturday 10am KDKA News This Morning Saturday…
Hurricane Vance intensifies rapidly off Mexico's Pacific CoastThe Weather Channel · 3 days agoThis GOES-19 GeoColor satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and taken on Friday, Oct. 23, 2026, shows Hurricane Vance in the Pacific. Hurricane Vance rapidly strengthened into a Category 2…
Rubio urges Cubans to work with CIA to bring political change to communist-run islandFox News · 4 days agoPresident Donald Trump teases that U.S. warships could stop near Cuba after Iran and send Secretary of State Marco Rubio in to "finish the job," during a midterm rally speech Friday, Oct. 23, 2026, in Fort Myers, Florida. Secretary of…
Flood threat from New Mexico to Colorado, snow in RockiesThe Weather Channel · 3 days agoThe Weather Channel Flooding rain shifts from Albuquerque to Denver as Rockies get snow After days of rain, the wet pattern is shifting from the Southwest toward the Plains through the weekend, and flooding is the main concern. Several…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAP, Bloomberg, Reuters

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$547 (9,633 contracts)

This week$11

At stake$231

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions