Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 176.6 – 200.8
Install
Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela?
Settled Yes: Before Dec 1, 2026
The last odds before it closed
—
- Before Oct 1, 20261%
- ✓ Before Dec 1, 202699%▲ 82
- ✓ Before Jan 1, 202795%▲ 61
- ✓ Before Apr 1, 202798%▲ 36
How the odds have moved
Before Dec 1, 2026: 19% on Oct 20, 17% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 9 PM ETBefore Dec 1, 2026: 43% → 17%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✗ Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | 22.1K | ||||
| ✓ Before Dec 1, 2026 | 99% | 5.8K | ||||
| ✓ Before Jan 1, 2027 | 95% | 38.4K | ||||
| ✓ Before Apr 1, 2027 | 98% | 802 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Venezuela, Maduro, María Corina Machado
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Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to Venezuela from exile for first time since Maduro’s ousterNobel Prize-winning opposition leader María Corina Machado reemerged from exile in Venezuela on Sunday for the first time since late last year, when she fled due to fears about her safety. Machado, who had been banned from running for… -
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado makes surprise return home after nearly a year abroadVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado joins Rachel Campos-Duffy in Panama to warn Americans about the dangers of socialism ahead of the midterms. Machado shares a direct message to President Donald Trump, praising his… -
Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado returns after months in exileCARACAS, Venezuela — Opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado reappeared in Venezuela Sunday for the first time since December, about a month before the U.S. military deposed the country's then-President Nicolás Maduro… -
Venezuela opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to country after 10-month exileOctober 25, 2026 / 12:57 PM EDT / CBS News Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado is back in her home country after nearly a year in exile, her team confirmed to CBS News on Sunday. "I am here. With you,"… -
Regresa María Corina Machado a Venezuela tras exilioMaría Corina Machado, líder opositora venezolana y Premio Nobel de la Paz, anunció su regreso a dicho país tras casi un año de exilio. Caracas, Venezuela (25 octubre 2026) .-10:05 hrs María Corina Machado, líder opositora venezolana y… -
Venezuela opposition leader Maria Corina Machado returns to VenezuelaVenezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has returned to the South American nation after nearly a year outside the country, she said on social media on Sunday. “I’m here. With you all,” the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Machado wrote… -
Photos of María Corina Machado’s return to Venezuela as supporters welcome opposition leaderVenezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, center, greets supporters in Barquisimeto, Venezuela, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026. Supporters of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado cheer as they wait for her to arrive in… -
Opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to Venezuela — and sparks hope for electionsAfter almost a year in exile — and having repeated attempts to return reportedly blocked by President Donald Trump — popular democratic opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado is now back in Venezuela, raising… -
Exiled Venezuela opposition leader Maria Corina Machado returns to VenezuelaVenezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has returned to Venezuela after ten months in exile. She announced the news on her X account on Sunday, writing in Spanish: “I am here. With you.” Her return poses a challenge to the… -
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returns home from exileMaría Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, announced Oct. 25 that she returned home after more than 10 months in exile, which could reshape the ongoing political transition in the South American… -
Líder opositora María Corina Machado regresa a Venezuela tras meses en exilio mientras persisten dudas sobre democraciaCARACAS (AP) — Líder opositora María Corina Machado regresa a Venezuela tras meses en exilio mientras persisten dudas sobre democracia. Billionaires’ plan to create CT public park and nature center gets key approval. They plan to spend… - Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returns after 10-month exileHer attempts to re-enter the country have tested relations with the Trump administration After almost a year away, Venezuelan opposition figure Maria Corina Machado has returned to her home country following a series of unsuccessful…
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All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
296.8median
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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Mar 2, 2028even chance by
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Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
194.9median
160230
Median 194.9Middle half 188.2 – 202.6
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
296.5median
250340
Median 296.5Middle half 289.1 – 306.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.1median
160230
Median 197.1Middle half 189.4 – 202.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions