Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 176.9 – 200.8
Install
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?
The odds
Apr 23, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
- Before Jan 1, 20278%▼ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202711%▼ 2
- Before Jul 1, 202726%▼ 3
- Before Jan 1, 202844%▲ 2
- Before Jul 1, 202854%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202976%
How the odds have moved
Before Apr 1, 2027: 21% on Oct 20, 11% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETBefore Apr 1, 2027: 19% → 14%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 8.3K | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 5.2K | ||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 6.1K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 11% | ▼ 2 | 9¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 2.7K |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 26% | ▼ 3 | 24¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 765 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 44% | ▲ 2 | 41¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 1.8K |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 54% | ▼ 1 | 50¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 505 |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 76% | 75¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 620 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Friedrich Merz, Chancellor
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Who is Friedrich Merz, the man on course to lead Germany after its election?February 24, 2025 / 1:09 PM EST / CBS/AP Friedrich Merz, who is on course to become post-World War II Germany's 10th chancellor after the country's election, has vowed to prioritize European unity and the continent's security as it… -
German Chancellor Merz to visit S. Korea next week for summit with LeeGerman Chancellor Friedrich Merz will visit Seoul next Thursday and Friday for a summit with President Lee Jae Myung. The visit will be Merz’s first to South Korea since taking office and the first bilateral visit by a German chancellor in… -
NYC Schools Chancellor Samuels meets with ‘fire-alarm’ Bowman for damage control after grillingIt’s a five-alarm fire at the Department of Education. Embattled New York City Schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels is so desperate to put out the flames of his disastrous Tuesday forum with New York Times writer Nikole Hannah-Jones that he… -
Germany investing in military amid concerns over Putin, uncertainty about U.S. support for European defenseDecember 14, 2025 / 7:50 PM EST / CBS News Nearly four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Germany is beefing up its security, increasing military enlistment and investing in an innovative array of defense technology… -
Lee to Hold Summit With German Chancellor Merz on the 29thFirst Official Visit by a German Chancellor in Three Years Talks to Cover AI, Semiconductors and Other Advanced Industries Third Summit Between the Two Leaders, Followed by Official Dinner President Lee Jae-myung will hold a summit with… -
Ukrainian held in Germany on suspicion of spying for Russia as Merz warns of more casesBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A German court has… -
EU needs to expand to project itself as 'clear factor of power' — German chancellorFriedrich Merz said that "political will" for European integration "should come from the region itself" - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian Politics & DiplomacyInto section â- Business & Economy Business & EconomyInto section â… -
Germany target of 'intensive' espionage, Merz says after suspected Russian spy arrestChancellor Friedrich Merz says Russian intelligence activity in Germany remains 'at a consistently high level' Germany is the target of "intensive" espionage activity, Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said after a Ukrainian national was… -
Chancellor plans to cut 'pointless paperwork' to save businesses up to £800mJohn Healey becomes the latest chancellor to pledge to cut red tape for businesses ahead of his first Budget The chancellor has announced plans to slash "form-filling and pointless paperwork" to save UK businesses up to £800m. Ministers… -
On the ground at Nvidia GTC Berlin: Jensen Huang, robot ducks and neocloud distressThis report is from this week’s The Tech Download newsletter. Like what you see? You can subscribe here. Jensen Huang has been busy. Nvidia’s GTC in Berlin was the grand finale of a week-and-a-half whistle stop European tour. Huang met… -
Great Chancellor! Medvedev appreciated the next pearl of MerzEADaily Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev commented on the next pearl of Friedrich Merz He expressed his opinion on the social network X Merz admitted that he cares the most at the moment And this is not the German… -
Merz says Germany faces massive threat from RussiaGerman Chancellor Friedrich Merz has expressed concern over a significant threat posed by Russia to Germany’s stability, highlighting the need for urgent economic reforms. BERLIN: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned on Saturday that…
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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Mar 2, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
- Before Dec 1, 20266%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20278%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202713%▼ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202717%▼ 1
- Before May 1, 202720%▲ 1
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202733%▲ 2
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202847%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202857%▲ 2
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296.6median
250340
Median 296.6Middle half 289.4 – 306.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.1median
160230
Median 197.1Middle half 189.4 – 202.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions