Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 176.9 – 200.8
Install
Will Kenya and the US reach a critical minerals deal? (Before Apr 1, 2027)
The odds
42%Before Apr 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20266%▼ 1
- Before Dec 1, 202613%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202725%
- Before Apr 1, 202742%
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2026: 8% on Oct 19, 6% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 6% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 13% | ▼ 1 | 9¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 56.00 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 25% | 21¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 2.4K | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 42% | 38¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 2.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kenya
Search ›-
Kenya highway crash kills 22, weeks after similar fatal accident: policeA bus collided with a truck on Kenya’s main highway on Sunday, killing at least 22 people, police said. The crash came three weeks after 17 people died in another accident along the same highway linking the capital, Nairobi, with the… -
Bus crash in Kenya kills 22 near the site of a previous fatal accidentMAKUENI, Kenya — A bus collided with a truck on Kenya’s main highway on Sunday, killing at least 22 people, police said. The crash came three weeks after 17 people died in another accident along the same highway linking the capital… -
13-storey building collapse for KenyaWia dis foto come from, Lucas Mukasa/Anadolu via Getty Images One multi-storey building wey still dey under construction, collapse dis Friday afternoon for 9th Street for Eastleigh area of Nairobi. Rescue operation don start work… -
Seven missing after multi-storey building collapses in Kenya's capitalA search and rescue effort is under way to find seven people feared trapped under rubble after a building collapsed in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. Dramatic footage shows the bottom floor of the block, thought to have been 16 or 18… -
1 person rescued from collapsed building in Kenya as others remain missingA person has been rescued from the rubble of a collapsed building in Nairobi more than 24 hours after the incident NAIROBI, Kenya — One person was rescued from the rubble of a building that collapsed in the capital, Nairobi, more than 24… - Samoa vs. Kenya (Oct 25, 2026) Live Score - ESPNLive coverage of the Samoa U17 vs. Kenya U17 Fifa Under-17 Women's World Cup game on ESPN, including live score, highlights and updated stats.
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Dangote plans $1.5B Kenya pipeline investmentAfrica’s richest man Aliko Dangote plans to invest $1.5 billion to expand a pipeline network in Kenya, the Financial Times reported. Dangote’s company bought a 25% stake in the Kenya Pipeline Company, a strategic move that underscores the… -
Woman, 65, becomes second patient to die of Ebola in KenyaKenya has recorded its second death from Ebola as it handles its first ever outbreak of the disease. A woman, aged 65, who was a close family member of the first victim, a man who had travelled from the Democratic Republic of Congo, died… -
Multi-story building collapses in Kenya, leaving many feared trapped under the rubbleNAIROBI, Kenya — Many people were feared trapped as a tall building collapsed Friday in Kenya’s capital, leaving a huge mound of concrete and more than a dozen floors stacked like pancakes, with little space between them. The building was… -
Authorities investigating whether first Kenyan and Nigerian Ebola cases crossed pathsKenya Red Cross personnel during a simulation of the evacuation of remains of an Ebola victim in the Kenyan capital Nairobi on October 22, 2026. Kenyan authorities detected a ninth case of Ebola in the country, the health ministry said… -
Man who fled to Kenya to avoid sentencing for deadly Madera County crash returned to CaliforniaOctober 23, 2026 / 7:00 PM PDT / CBS Sacramento A wanted fugitive who fled to Kenya in 2013 after a Madera County jury convicted him of gross vehicular manslaughter while intoxicated has been returned to California, FBI Sacramento…
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All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
296.7median
250340
Median 296.7Middle half 283.9 – 308.3
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Mar 2, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
- Before Dec 1, 20266%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20278%▲ 1
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20278%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202713%▼ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202717%▼ 1
- Before May 1, 202719%▲ 1
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202733%▲ 2
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202847%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202857%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
194.5median
160230
Median 194.5Middle half 187.4 – 202.9
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
296.8median
250340
Median 296.8Middle half 290.4 – 306.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.1median
160230
Median 197.1Middle half 189.4 – 202.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions