Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
194.0median
160230
Median 194.0Middle half 187.0 – 200
Install
Israel Katz departure announced? (Before 2027)
The odds
55%chance▲ 21
How the odds have moved
Yes: 38% on Oct 20, 55% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 7 PM ET35% → 55%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | ▲ 21 | 51¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 4.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu
Search ›-
'Completely baseless and false': Israel Katz denies Netanyahu-IDF chief clash over Iran strike plansDefence Minister Israel Katz rejected reports of a rift between Israel’s political leadership and the military over Iran, said no pre-election attack was planned and further warned that any Iranian strike would draw a powerful response… -
Netanyahu, 34 other ‘Israelis’ face trial in Turkey over Gaza flotillaA Turkish court has launched proceedings against ‘Israeli’ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 34 other ‘Israelis’ over the interception of the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla, maintaining arrest warrants for all defendants and… -
Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld, NetanyahuA group of people protested outside Jerry Seinfeld's Washington, D.C. show. They chanted, used vulgar language and violently smashed posters of the comedian and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld… -
Israeli election to test Benjamin Netanyahu's ability to hold powerCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 6am WBZ This Morning 8am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6am CBS Miami News Sunday Morning CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA News This Morning Sunday 8am -
Israel votes: Netanyahu’s future on the line – Full Story podcastIsraeli citizens are about to vote in what’s being seen as elections that are almost existential when it comes to the future identity of the country. That’s because since the October 7 attack by Hamas in which about 1,200 Israelis were… -
Israel to close West Bank crossings on election day as crackdown escalatesAll West Bank land crossings will be closed during Tuesday's election in Israel, the country's military says, and Palestinian workers will be barred from entering all settlements. The restrictions come amid a crackdown in the occupied West… -
Thousands rally against Netanyahu in Tel Aviv ahead of Israeli elections – videoThousands of people gathered in Tel Aviv on Saturday in a final protest against the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his government ahead of what has been described as the most consequential election in the country's… -
This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in IsraelA former Israeli general is the main center-right challenger hoping to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israeli elections this week. This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in Israel A former… -
Israelis set to decide whether Netanyahu still deserves to lead after Oct. 7 attacksTEL AVIV — Should Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be punished for the Oct. 7, 2023 terrorist attack — or is he, in fact, the strongest person to protect the Jewish state during its multi-front war? That is perhaps the central issue when… -
The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli ElectionPaul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli Election Paul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman -
Israel’s furious Arab parties could oust Netanyahu — if the opposition will break an election promiseIsraeli-Arabs could sway the balance of power in Israel’s general elections next week as the country’s two major parties are predicted to fall short of a majority in the Knesset. Nearly all of Israel’s polls ahead of Tuesday’s election… -
American Jews who fled to Israel over rising antisemitism could prove decisive for Netanyahu’s futureJERUSALEM — Thousands of Americans Jews who fled to Israel amid rising antisemitism in the US could be pivotal in Tuesday’s national election — and most of them appear to be breaking for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, observers say. An…
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Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.5median
160230
Median 197.5Middle half 189.4 – 202.7
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
298.3median
250340
Median 298.3Middle half 291.8 – 307.1
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.3median
140230
Median 189.3Middle half 176.6 – 200.8
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
296.6median
250340
Median 296.6Middle half 284.2 – 308.2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions