Israeli Parliamentary Election: 4th Place (Oct 27, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Oct 27, 2027 · $51 today · $1.4K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

27%The Democrats

The Democrats27%▲ 2
Shas21%▲ 4
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)17%▲ 1
Otzma Yehudit14%▲ 2
Together9%▼ 6
United Torah Judaism3%
Yisrael Beiteinu3%▼ 3
Reservists–New Economic Party1%
Ra'am1%
Religious Zionist Party–Zehut1%
Yashar1%
Blue and White<1%

2 more

Likud<1%
People of Israel<1%

How the odds have moved

The Democrats: 29% on Oct 20, 27% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
The Democrats	27%	▲ 2	23¢	32¢	$3.13	1.3K
Shas	21%	▲ 4	17¢	25¢	$4.00	98.00
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)	17%	▲ 1	13¢	21¢	$4.76	368
Otzma Yehudit	14%	▲ 2	10¢	18¢	$5.56	1.3K
Together	9%	▼ 6	8¢	11¢	$9.09	4.6K
United Torah Judaism	3%			7¢	$14.29	47.00
Yisrael Beiteinu	3%	▼ 3	1¢	6¢	$16.67	945
Reservists–New Economic Party	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	2.9K
Ra'am	1%			2¢	$50.00	2.5K
Religious Zionist Party–Zehut	1%			2¢	$50.00	2.4K
Yashar	1%			2¢	$50.00	4.6K
Blue and White	<1%			1¢	$100.00	11.3K
Likud	<1%			1¢	$100.00	2.8K
People of Israel	<1%			1¢	$100.00	2.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israeli Parliamentary, The Democrats

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Trump Claims Ilhan Omar’s Seat ‘Conceded’ By DemocratsNewsweek · 22 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 01:04 PM EDT U.S. President Donald Trump declared Representative Ilhan Omar’s seat “conceded” by Democrats over federal court filings referring to her as Ilhan Nur Said Elmi, a name Omar has denied is hers. Prosecutors…
Obama returning as campaign "closer-in-chief" for Democratscnn.com · 2 days agoFormer President Obama is hitting the campaign trail this weekend. Just how are Democrats banking on his star power to get them over the finish line? CNN's Arlette Saenz has the details. Obama returning as campaign ‘closer-in-chief’ for…
Obama hits campaign trail to stump for Democrats as midterm election nearsBBC News · 35 h agoFormer President Barack Obama attacked the Trump administration over the Iran war and high consumer prices as he hit the campaign trail for Democrats ahead the nationwide midterm elections. On Saturday, the Democrat held a campaign rally…
Hochul faces revolt from unlikely New Yorkers as Democrats deliver scathing verdict on their partyFox News · 43 h agoFormer Democratic lawmaker Stephen Kaufman, GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman and Bronx voters tell Fox News Digital why they believe New York needs a change in leadership. BRONX, N.Y. – Republican New York gubernatorial candidate…
Why Cook Political Report just shifted 19 more House races in Democrats' directioncnn.com · 3 days agoDana Bash is joined by Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report as the nonpartisan ratings outlet shifts 19 House races in Democrats' direction. She explains which races they moved and why - including which Republican incumbents are facing…
Thune weighs nightmare scenario for GOP as Democrats threaten to flip HouseFox News · 3 days agoElection forecasters see Democrats taking the House, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told Fox News Digital he is confident Republicans will hold the chamber, and he won’t have to work with potential Speaker Hakeem Jeffries…
Obama slams Trump’s ‘cruelty and corruption’ at Ohio rally for DemocratsAl Jazeera · 32 h agoFormer US president says Trump ‘chose to make a series of bad decisions’, highlighting the US-Israel war on Iran. Former United States President Barack Obama has criticised the “cruelty and corruption” during President Donald Trump’s…
Republican incumbent Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley vie for NY-17 seat in northern suburbsCBS News · 2 days agoUpdated on: October 23, 2026 / 5:51 PM EDT / CBS New York Republican incumbent Mike Lawler and challenger Cait Conley are campaigning for the hotly contested seat in New York's 17th Congressional District. The district includes all of…
Elizabeth Warren confronted on Democrats accepting billionaire donationsFox News · 4 days agoSen. Elizabeth Warren was confronted on Democrats receiving donations from billionaires on Tuesday, as the senator has called for no billionaire money in politics. Elizabeth Warren confronted on Democrats accepting billionaire donations…
Obama hits the campaign trail for Democrats with midterms less than 2 weeks awayCBS News · 31 h agoCBS News Bay Area Evening Edition Weekend 6pm CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6pm CBS News Philadelphia 7:30pm What's in Season with Michael Marks CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm
Climate group pours in midterms money for DemocratsThe Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. In an election defined…
Obama slams Trump for years of ‘chaos and cruelty’ while stumping for Democrats in Michigan, OhioCNN · 28 h agoGet the latest midterms campaign developments here. • Campaign blitz: President Donald Trump rallied tonight in Perry, Georgia, while former President Barack Obama held an event in Detroit with Abdul El-Sayed and other Michigan Democrats…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onCentral Elections Committee

Trading closesOct 27, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$1.4K (37,716 contracts)

Today$51

At stake$1.1K

In the news50 headlines today, 382 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Blue and White finishes in 4th place in the 2026 Israeli Knesset election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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