Israeli Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place (Oct 27, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Oct 27, 2027 · $51 today · $2.6K traded · $1.6K at stake · prices read 44 min ago

The odds

63%Likud

Likud63%
Yashar29%▲ 2
Together6%▲ 2
A Place for All of Us3%
Blue and White3%
Haredi Public3%
Israel First3%
New Economic Party3%
Religious Zionist Party3%
Unity3%
Zehut3%
Zionist Home–The Reservists3%

11 more

Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)2%▼ 1
Noam for Israel2%▼ 1
Otzma Yehudit2%▼ 1
People of Israel2%▼ 1
Ra'am2%▼ 1
The Democrats2%▼ 1
United Torah Judaism2%▼ 1
Yisrael Beiteinu2%▼ 1
Religious Zionist Party–Zehut2%▼ 1
Reservists–New Economic Party2%▼ 1
Shas1%

How the odds have moved

Likud: 64% on Oct 20, 63% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Likud	63%		60¢	65¢	$1.54	3.1K
Yashar	29%	▲ 2	27¢	31¢	$3.23	1.5K
Together	6%	▲ 2	2¢	9¢	$11.11	1.9K
A Place for All of Us	3%			5¢	$20.00	405
Blue and White	3%			5¢	$20.00	405
Haredi Public	3%			5¢	$20.00	405
Israel First	3%			5¢	$20.00	405
New Economic Party	3%			5¢	$20.00	405
Religious Zionist Party	3%			5¢	$20.00	405
Unity	3%			5¢	$20.00	405
Zehut	3%			5¢	$20.00	405
Zionist Home–The Reservists	3%			5¢	$20.00	405
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)	2%	▼ 1		4¢	$25.00	405
Noam for Israel	2%	▼ 1		4¢	$25.00	405
Otzma Yehudit	2%	▼ 1		4¢	$25.00	405
People of Israel	2%	▼ 1		4¢	$25.00	405
Ra'am	2%	▼ 1		4¢	$25.00	405
The Democrats	2%	▼ 1		4¢	$25.00	405
United Torah Judaism	2%	▼ 1		4¢	$25.00	405
Yisrael Beiteinu	2%	▼ 1		4¢	$25.00	405
Religious Zionist Party–Zehut	2%	▼ 1		4¢	$25.00
Reservists–New Economic Party	2%	▼ 1		4¢	$25.00
Shas	1%			2¢	$50.00	405

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israeli Parliamentary

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Dodik supports Netanyahu ahead of Israeli parliamentary elections: "The Serbian and Jewish people are connected by history"vijesti.me · 5 days ago"The relations between Republika Srpska and Israel are based on these foundations," Dodik emphasized. The leader of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) Milorad Dodik has expressed his support to Israeli Prime Minister…
US Vice President declines to openly endorse Netanyahu in Israeli Parliamentary electionsBNN · 6 days agoOn the 19th of October, Vance avoided directly criticizing Netanyahu, but indicated that he does not intend to involve himself in the electoral process of another country ahead of the US midterm elections. US Vice President JD Vance has…
Thousands protest against Netanyahu ahead of Israeli election (VIDEO)RT International · 19 h agoA major protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken place in Tel-Aviv just days ahead of the Israeli parliamentary election on October 27. A square outside the Museum of Art in the country’s largest city was packed on…
Israel Election 2026 Date: When Will Israelis Vote? Check Election Schedule, Key Candidates, Major Parties & Latest UpdatesThe Sunday Guardian · 13 h agoThe Israel Election 2026 is scheduled for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. The vote will determine the composition of the 26th Knesset, Israel’s national legislature. According to the official election timetable, the publication of election…
Tens of thousands protest in Israel against Netanyahu governmentYahoo News · 42 h agoTens of thousands of people were demonstrating in Israel on Saturday evening against the right-wing government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to eyewitnesses. At a rally in the coastal city of Tel Aviv, former hostages and…
Eizenkot says he intends to defeat Netanyahu in elections — The HinduUA.NEWS · 27 h agoIn Israel, Gadi Eizenkot, leader of the centrist Yashar party, said he seeks to defeat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the elections and end his political career. He also promises to end the protracted wars and strip Hamas of power in…
Israel's Eisenkot praises Trump strikes on Iran, warns of nuclear threatIran International · 16 h agoFormer Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot praised US President Donald Trump's decision to launch strikes against Iran alongside Israel and warned that Tehran was seeking to develop nuclear weapons, in an interview with the New York Post…
'A Much Larger Scale': IDF Warns of Bigger Attack as Netanyahu Prepares West Bank Closure@IBTimesUK · 3 days agoIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered security forces to cordon off Hebron and prepare for a wider West Bank closure on Friday, 23 October 2026, after a shooting wounded five Israelis near the city. Two of the wounded were in…
Israeli military says 2 soldiers were killed in the West Bank attack that also left 2 gunmen deadWHIO TV 7 and WHIO Radio · 3 days agoJERUSALEM — Two Israeli soldiers were killed in an attack in the occupied West Bank on Friday morning that also left two suspected gunmen dead, the military said, violence that is likely to heighten political tensions and security concerns…
Israel Election 2026: Will Netanyahu's Defeat Help Palestine?english.dainikjagranmpcg.com · 3 days agoIsrael votes on October 27, but Netanyahu's defeat may not advance Palestinian statehood as most mainstream opposition parties retain hardline positions. Israel votes on October 27 in a closely contested election, but a change of…
Iran War Day 237: U.S., Israel Planning to Resume Strikes in November, Per ReportThe American Conservative · 3 days agoState of the Union: Israeli military jets have been maneuvering near the Iranian border. The post Iran War Day 237: U.S., Israel Planning to Resume Strikes in November, Per Report appeared first on The American Conservative. The New York…
Would a Democratic Congress change course on Israel?Vox · 3 days agoPublic opinion on Israel has changed. But it doesn’t rank among most voters’ top midterm priorities. This story appeared in Today, Explained, a daily newsletter that helps you understand the most compelling news and stories of the day…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onCentral Elections Committee

Trading closesOct 27, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$2.6K (13,761 contracts)

Today$51

This week$352

At stake$1.6K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If A Place for All of Us finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Israeli Knesset election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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