Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)
91%chance
Install
Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold? (2026)
The odds
90%S&P 500 Total Return Index
- S&P 500 Total Return Index90%▲ 2
- Gold10%▼ 3
How the odds have moved
S&P 500 Total Return Index: 95% on Oct 20, 90% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Total Return Index | 90% | ▲ 2 | 88¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 16.6K |
| Gold | 10% | ▼ 3 | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 15.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: S&P 500, stocks, S&P Total Return Vs. Gold
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The S&P 500 is forming a bearish chart pattern. Can it snap out of it?The S & P 500 has struggled to break decisively above 7,800 since first reaching that area in late July. Along the way, ... -
Magnificent 7 Stocks Statistics 2026: Market Cap, S&P 500 Weight and ReturnsThe Magnificent 7 are seven large U.S. companies that now make up more than one-third of the S&P 500. Their combined market value is close to $25 trillion. This article uses data from Fidelity, MarketWatch, The Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha… -
Michael Burry Says S&P 500 Looks ‘Uncannily Close’ To 2000 — And ‘Busted’ Stocks Could Be The Winners“The Big Short” investor Michael Burry drew comparisons between the current stock market and the dot-com era, calling the current market “uncannily close” to 2000, while adding that the S&P 500’s internal breadth looks unusually weak even… -
How much do stocks move after earnings? I measured 12,353 S&P 500 reportsI measured the stock move on the first trading session after every quarterly earnings release by current S&P 500 companies since April 2020: 12,353 reports from 493 companies. The average move was 4.6% and the median 3.3%, about three… -
Here's How Many Years It Takes to Hit $1 Million Investing in the S&P 500Published on Oct. 24, 2026 I still remember the morning walk with my wife when I told her "Hey babe, our net worth just crossed a million bucks." We both laughed, then went a little quiet. It was a surreal moment. We grew up watching "Who… -
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOO Shares Bought by Howland Capital Management LLCHowland Capital Management LLC lifted its stake in shares of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO – Free Report) by 33.4% during the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange… -
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF $IVV Stock: Crescent Grove Advisors LLC Lowers HoldingsCrescent Grove Advisors LLC trimmed its position in iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV – Free Report) by 3.8% in the third quarter, according to its most recent filing with the SEC. The fund owned 95,340 shares of the ETF’s stock after… - iShares Core S&P 500 ETF $IVV Shares Sold by JSF Financial LLCJSF Financial LLC reduced its holdings in iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV – Free Report) by 2.1% in the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The…
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Two-Thirds of S&P 500 Stocks Rose on Thursday, but the Index Still Fell — Exposing the Risk Hiding in Your PortfolioOn Thursday, October 22, 2026, 337 S&P 500 stocks finished higher. Only 159 declined and 1 was unchanged across 497 tracked constituents. The index still closed lower. Most stocks rose and the benchmark fell, and that mismatch is a risk… - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOO Stock Position Increased by SBI Securities Co. Ltd.Posted by Mitch Edgeman on Oct 25th, 2026 Shares of VOO stock opened at $698.58 on Friday. The stock has a 50-day simple moving average of $705.87 and a 200 day simple moving average of $687.57. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF has a fifty-two week…
- Foster Victor Wealth Advisors LLC Purchases 1,246 Shares of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOOFoster Victor Wealth Advisors LLC grew its holdings in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO – Free Report) by 24.1% during the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund owned…
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BIP Wealth LLC Acquires 2,429 Shares of Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF $RSPBIP Wealth LLC grew its stake in shares of Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA:RSP – Free Report) by 42.7% during the third quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund…
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What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
$777.34high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $777.34 and as low as $751.67.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $78032%
- Falls to $760>99%
- Falls to $75040%
Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
48%↑ $8,000
Traders see as low as 7,307.
- Reaches 8,00048%
- Reaches 8,20021%
- Falls to 7,40066%
- Falls to 7,20032%
Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions