Pete Hoekstra out as US Ambassador to Canada? (Before Jan 2028)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $175 traded · $143 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

28%Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Dec 12, 20268%
Before Jan 26, 202712%
Before Apr 1, 202717%
Before Jan 1, 202828%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Dec 12, 2026	8%		6¢	10¢	$10.00	1.9K
Before Jan 26, 2027	12%		8¢	16¢	$6.25	4.00
Before Apr 1, 2027	17%		13¢	21¢	$4.76
Before Jan 1, 2028	28%	▲ 1	24¢	32¢	$3.13	80.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Pete Hoekstra, Ambassador, Canada

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Before Feb 1, 20277%▼ 1
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Before Apr 1, 202720%
Before May 1, 202720%▼ 3
Before Jun 1, 202727%▼ 2
Before Jul 1, 202734%▼ 2
Before Aug 1, 202734%▲ 1
Before Sep 1, 202735%▼ 1
Before Oct 1, 202738%
Before Nov 1, 202741%▼ 4
Before Dec 1, 202741%▼ 4
Before Jan 1, 202846%▼ 4
Before Jul 1, 202850%▼ 9
Before Jan 1, 202956%▼ 10

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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)

189.8median

140230

Median 189.8Middle half 180.7 – 203.6

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Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)

190.4median

160230

Median 190.4Middle half 183.5 – 199.3

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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)

190.9median

140260

Median 190.9Middle half 181.6 – 200.6

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Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/12 - 10/18)

310.4median

250340

Median 310.4Middle half 296.3 – 316.8

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)

291.4median

250340

Median 291.4Middle half 282.0 – 308.7

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Department of State, U.S. Embassy in Canada, Global Affairs Canada

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$175 (1,985 contracts)

This week$175

At stake$143

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Pete Hoekstra leaves as US Ambassador to Canada before Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.