Guadalajara, Jalisco mayoral election winner? (2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jun 5, 2028 · prices read 10 h ago

The odds

57%MC

MC57%
Morena37%
PAN5%

How the odds have moved

MC: 57% on Oct 19, 57% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays
MC	57%	53¢	61¢	$1.64
Morena	37%	33¢	41¢	$2.44
PAN	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Guadalajara, Jalisco

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Guadalajara unrest over water crisis intensifies as alleged infiltrators provoke violenceElReporterosf.com · 4 days agoby the El Reportero staff A second major protest in Guadalajara drew approximately 10,000 people demanding clean water, but the largely peaceful demonstration turned violent after masked individuals allegedly infiltrated the march…
Agua turbia y malos olores: qué hay detrás de la crisis que moviliza a GuadalajaraKRDO · 4 days agoPor Belén Zapata, CNN en Español Agua con olores fétidos y apariencia turbia sale de los grifos de miles de habitantes de la zona metropolitana de Guadalajara desde hace por lo menos dos años, dicen habitantes de la ciudad consultados por…
Jalisco Protesters Torch Government Palace Doors as Guadalajara Water Crisis Enters Week ThreeLatin Times · 7 days agoMany who returned to the streets on Sunday cited the state's violent response on October 11 — tear gas, water cannons, and mass detentions — as the reason they came back despite the risk. One resident of the Obrera neighborhood told El…
Guillermo del Toro Said a Film Festival Is Exactly the Right Place to Protest After Students Called Out Guadalajara’s Six-Year Water CrisisBELatina · 6 days agoBELatina delivers daily news that celebrates and empowers the vibrant and diverse Latina/Afro-Latino community and the growing cultural zeitgeist they inform. Guillermo del Toro arrived at the 24th edition of the Morelia International Film…
Guadalajara unrest over water crisis intensifies as presumed infiltrators provoke violenceMexico News Daily · 7 days agoA second major march in a week drew some 10,000 people protesting the unresolved issue of contaminated water in the Guadalajara metropolitan area, but alleged infiltrators turned the otherwise peaceful demonstration violent. Incidents of…
Vandalism and looting occur during water protest in Guadalajara — Mexico News DailyUA.NEWS · 6 days agoIn Guadalajara, Mexico, around 10,000 people took part in the second mass protest in a week over the problem of contaminated water in the city’s metropolitan area. The demonstration, which was largely peaceful, was accompanied by acts of…
Violence erupts at second Guadalajara water protest in MexicoTürkiye Today · 7 days agoViolence erupted Sunday during a protest over water shortages and contamination in Guadalajara, western Mexico, in the city's second demonstration over the crisis in a week. Residents across the Guadalajara metropolitan area have faced…
Lanzan explosivos en acceso al Congreso de Jalisco@reforma · 8 days agoReportan lanzamiento de artefactos explosivos en el acceso principal del Congreso de Jalisco durante las protestas por la crisis de agua. Cd. de México (18 octubre 2026) .-17:01 hrs Hasta el momento se desconoce la magnitud de los daños…
Worsening water crisis sparks protests in Mexico's GuadalajaraCentral Oregon Daily · 10 days agoResidents show water coming from the taps in their homes amid growing concerns over water quality and protests demanding government action, in Guadalajara, Jalisco state, Mexico, October 9, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer A woman fills a bucket…
Residents protest demanding clean water in GuadalajaraThe Lufkin Daily News · 10 days agoThe Lufkin Daily News A protester throws dirty water at state riot police during a demonstration demanding clean water after weeks of residents' complaints about discolored and foul-smelling water in parts of the metropolitan area, outside…
Guadalajara Residents Demand Action Over Water Quality CrisisThe Lufkin Daily News · 10 days agoThe Lufkin Daily News Residents show water coming from the taps in their homes amid growing concerns over water quality and protests demanding government action, in Guadalajara, Jalisco state, Mexico, October 9, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer…
Commission investigates police actions at Guadalajara protest — Mexico News DailyUA.NEWS · 11 days agoCommission investigates police actions at Guadalajara protest UA.NEWS Commission investigates police actions at Guadalajara protest — Mexico News Daily Mexico’s National Human Rights Commission (CNDH) is investigating possible human rights…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onInstituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Jalisco

Trading closesJun 5, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Morena wins the 2027 Guadalajara mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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