When will xAI release Grok 5?

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $33 today · $7.6K traded · $2.7K at stake · prices read 34 min ago

The odds

40%Before 2027

Before 202740%▲ 3
Before December9%▼ 3
Before November3%

How the odds have moved

Before 2027: 39% on Oct 20, 40% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before 2027	40%	▲ 3	38¢	42¢	$2.38	18.0K
Before December	9%	▼ 3	6¢	12¢	$8.33	1.2K
Before September	4%				$25.00	771
Before November	3%			5¢	$20.00	297
Before October	1%				$100.00	30.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: xAI, Grok, Before December

Search ›

CSK veteran MS Dhoni to decide IPL 2027 participation before DecemberKhel Now · 9 h agoChennai Super Kings will look to bounce back strongly in the Indian Premier League (IPL 2027) after two difficult seasons. The franchise last won the title in 2023 and has since struggled to perform consistently. As the next season…
Before December, I will have to see...: MS Dhoni reveals his IPL future planNews18 · 32 h agoBengaluru (Karnataka) [India], October 24 (ANI): Former India captain MS Dhoni spoke on his Indian Premier League (IPL) future, hinting that a call could be made before December to see if he can play one more season. Dhoni, who missed the…
MS Dhoni drops big hint on IPL future, decision expected before DecemberIndia Today · 31 h agoSpeaking at a healthcare event in Bengaluru, the question about his future once again came into focus. In his usual joking fashion, Dhoni said he will have to go through the test and see if he will be able to deliver one more season in CSK…
Yankees’ Next Prospect Decision Comes Before DecemberHEAVY · 6 h agoThe New York Yankees have an important prospect decision to make before the usual December transaction chatter. Carlos Lagrange needs a place in their winter roster planning. That does not mean the Yankees are preparing to lose him. It…
Edwardsville residents should vote early before November 3The Edwardsville Intelligencer · 34 h agoLetters to the editor can be submitted to [email protected]. Some 1,000 area residents lined streets around City Park Saturday, Oct. 17, to issue a “Vote Early” alert. Part of a national call to action from the “No Kings” coalition of…
North Central Florida Community Center races to save pool before December deadline@wcjb20 · 2 days agoOfficials at the North Central Florida Community Center, formerly the YMCA, are working to raise $100,000 for pool repairs and a new heater. If resurfacing does not begin by Dec. 1, the pool will close. North Central Florida Community…
Best Altcoin to Buy Before November? TAO and RENDER Face Remittix’s $33M Raise and Planned 20% Supply CutTechBullion · 8 h agoTAO and RENDER give investors two distinct routes into crypto’s AI economy. The Best Altcoin to Buy Before November could be TAO for decentralised intelligence markets, RENDER for distributed GPU capacity or RTX for an earlier-stage…
2 UK dividend stocks with yields above 5% to consider before NovemberThe Twelfth Magpie · 42 h agoBen McPoland highlights a pair of top-notch income stocks from the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 that sport attractive dividend yields. With a lot of market volatility around, now could be a good time for income investors to look for stocks…
India, EU race to finalise FTA before December deadline to coincide with PM Modi's Brussels visitHindustan Times · 13 h agoThe European Union and India are intensely engaged to meet the December deadline for signing the India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to coincide with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s expected Brussels visit as the European Commission…
Surprises before WWE Crown Jewel 2026: Three big moments we could see booked before November 7wrestletalk.com · 29 h agoNot only is WWE building towards its Crown Jewel premium live event on November 7, but it is also loading up the next few week’s of Raw and SmackDown building to the show. The October 30 episode of SmackDown will see two major title…
DJI Action 7 and Nano 2: Expected Launch Before November 11?thenewcamera.com · 2 days agoStarting from the beginning of the year, we have added updates related to the DJI Action 7 and Osmo Nano 2 in that post. We have clearly mentioned that the scheduled launch time could be sometime in November 2026. Now, going back to August…

Related markets

All ai ›

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

85%Google

Google85%▼ 5
Anthropic13%▲ 5
OpenAI1%▲ 1

18 more

Meta<1%
Moonshot<1%
Alibaba<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

54%Anthropic

Anthropic54%▲ 4
Google36%▼ 5
OpenAI6%

12 more

Meta1%
xAI1%
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Z.ai<1%
Mistral<1%
Microsoft<1%
ByteDance<1%
Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
Baidu<1%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

58%No release by October 31

No release by October 3158%▼ 11
October 2717%
October 2911%▲ 6

11 more

October 264%▼ 1
October 284%▲ 1
October 302%▲ 1
October 201%▼ 12
October 31<1%▼ 1
October 25<1%▼ 1
October 19<1%▼ 2
October 21<1%▼ 5
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 23<1%▼ 4
October 24<1%

Tech › AI

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

1,410median

1,3801,480

Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Nov 9, 2026even chance by

October 21<1%▼ 12
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 24<1%▼ 1

2 more

October 3143%▲ 12
December 3194%▲ 1

Tech › AI

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

32%December 31, 2028

December 31, 20264%
June 30, 202711%
December 31, 202714%

1 more

December 31, 202832%▲ 9

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onxAI

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$7.6K (50,451 contracts)

Today$33

This week$304

At stake$2.7K

In the news12 headlines today, 119 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If xAI releases Grok 5 before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions