AI capability growth this year? (Before 2027)
1,558median
1,5001,800
Median 1,558
Install
Google share of requests on Nov 4, 2026 (Vercel)
The odds
47%Above 9.9%
- Above 9.9%47%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
The news: Google, Vercel
Search ›- Google search has gone from being very handy to uselessGoogle’s AI summary is punching a huge hole in their own profits – is this good?Sign up here to get an email whenever First Dog cartoons are publishedGet all your needs met at the First Dog shop if what you need is First Dog merchandise…
- Unions gain access to thousands of Google workers after UK employment rights overhaulProspect to hold workplace sessions and recruit members under agreement with tech company Trade unions are expected to make further inroads into big tech companies in the UK after new rights for unions to access workplaces came into force…
- Vercel CI vs GitHub Actions for Next.js: which to useEverything below was checked against Vercel's and GitHub's own docs and pricing pages on 2 November 2026. Vercel CI is a beta from 28 October, so treat the numbers as a snapshot, not a contract. Vercel announced Vercel CI in beta on 28…
- Vercel agent-desktop: computer use for coding agents through the accessibility treeThe core loop is observe, act, observe again: A snapshot returns JSON with a ref for every element the agent can act on. The agent acts on a ref, then takes a new snapshot to check the result. Nothing is inferred from pixels. The tool…
- Vercel agent-desktop Ships Computer Use via UIA Trees, Not PixelsOn 31 October 2026 Vercel Labs released agent-desktop, an open-source CLI and C library that gives any coding agent computer use on macOS, Windows and Linux. It does not take screenshots and ask a vision model to guess button coordinates…
- TanStack AI vs Vercel AI SDK: The One I Would ShipMy judgment: for tool inputs and message shapes, call it even. For model options - the surface where provider differences actually bite, where one model takes reasoning effort and another takes a thinking budget - per-model typing is the…
- Investigating a traffic spike with Vercel Analytics and first-party eventsA traffic spike on a small website can be surprisingly difficult to explain. On October 28, my text graphics tool, GummyType, received a sudden increase in visits. I hadn't run a campaign or a batch test. I used three sources to…
- Vercel Labs releases agent-desktop, giving coding agents control of desktop appsThe free, open-source Rust tool reads the OS accessibility tree instead of screenshots and works with Claude Code, Codex or any agent that runs shell commands. Vercel Labs has released agent-desktop, a free, open-source tool that gives AI…
- Trailing slashes in a static Astro site on Vercel: five layers and a check that never failedThis article walks through each layer with the code from that project, the output from real requests, and two things I got wrong. One of them is a build check that passed on every route for two months without checking anything. The…
- Vercel's agent-desktop Lets Coding Agents Click Native Apps Without Moving Your MouseYour coding agent can now open Finder, read every button in the window as JSON, and click one by its ID, while your own pointer stays exactly where you left it. The builder's launch post went up on X at 23:48 UTC on October 30, according…
- Google confirms Googlebook detachables are coming soonGoogle said at the Android Dev Summit that detachable Googlebook devices will arrive soon, expanding the range beyond the clamshell and convertible models launched in September. The company did not provide a launch date, model list or…
- ChatGPT Health may soon connect to Google Health on AndroidOpenAI’s ChatGPT Health could soon connect with Google Health on Android, adding an integration that remains unavailable to Android users. The connection could allow ChatGPT Health to use health information to provide insights and advice…
Related markets
All ai ›Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.21Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.21T.
- Reaches $1.5T90%
- Reaches $1.75T83%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
55%Google
- Google55%▲ 2
- Anthropic38%▲ 2
- OpenAI5%
12 more
- Meta1%
- xAI1%
- Alibaba<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
- ByteDance<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
>99%No release by October 31
- No release by October 31>99%▲ 2
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 19<1%▼ 2
11 more
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
- October 25<1%▼ 1
- October 26<1%▼ 4
- October 27<1%▼ 16
- October 28<1%▼ 2
- October 29<1%▼ 3
- October 30<1%▼ 1
- October 31<1%▼ 1
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
66%Google
- Google66%▼ 4
- Anthropic29%▲ 2
- OpenAI3%
18 more
- Meta1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
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