Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round) (Apr 18, 2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Apr 18, 2028 · $1.9K traded · $1.2K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

29%Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon29%▲ 1
Édouard Philippe20%
David Lisnard13%▲ 1
Marine Le Pen11%▼ 1
Raphaël Glucksmann7%
Gabriel Attal4%▲ 1
François Hollande3%
Jordan Bardella3%
Bruno Retailleau3%
Dominique de Villepin1%
Éric Zemmour1%
François Ruffin1%

2 more

Marine Tondelier1%
Xavier Bertrand1%

How the odds have moved

Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 26% on Oct 20, 29% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	29%	▲ 1	27¢	35¢	$2.86	1.1K
Édouard Philippe	20%		17¢	25¢	$4.00	708
David Lisnard	13%	▲ 1	10¢	18¢	$5.56	4.5K
Marine Le Pen	11%	▼ 1	10¢	13¢	$7.69	3.3K
Raphaël Glucksmann	7%		5¢	11¢	$9.09	3.2K
Gabriel Attal	4%	▲ 1	1¢	7¢	$14.29	508
François Hollande	3%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	508
Jordan Bardella	3%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	508
Bruno Retailleau	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	508
Dominique de Villepin	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	454
Éric Zemmour	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	454
François Ruffin	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	454
Marine Tondelier	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	454
Xavier Bertrand	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	454

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Édouard Philippe, David Lisnard

Search ›

Why Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants France to burn@spikedonline · 4 days agoThe post Why Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants France to burn appeared first on spiked. As France has descended into anarchy, enduring its most destructive and violent rioting in decades, most of the candidates to replace Emmanuel Macron as…
French protests hand Melenchon election boostYahoo News · 20 h agoThe protests in France have handed Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the far Left, a boost in his presidential campaign. Polling conducted after the Oct 17 protests shows that Mr Mélenchon has pulled ahead of Édouard Philippe, an ally of…
Who is Marine Le Pen? Why are betting markets bullish on her winning 2027 French presidency amid unrest in Francemint · 4 days agoBetting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are bullish on Marine Le Pen's chances of winning the 2027 French presidential election. The prediction comes as massive nationwide protests over the cost of living woes continue to roil…
Recommended StoriesWashington Examiner · 3 days agoWithin a month, however, a cascade of disorder developed on a scale not seen in years. The rioting and destruction on the weekend of Oct. 17-18 by an alliance of immigrant-descended “New French” and the radical Left has not just shaken the…
France unrest: 1,000 detained as cost-of-living protests explode into clashesNews18 · 26 h agoParis [France], October 25 (ANI): Massive nationwide protests in France over the rising cost of living and underfunded public services turned violent, with nearly 1,000 people arrested and key urban centres hit by tear gas and clashes…
Macron wants to ban protests in France, except union marchesAround Prague · 4 days agoFrench President Emmanuel Macron has said it is best for France to hold no demonstrations in the near future, and that rallies not organised by trade unions will be banned. He said this after meeting the heads of France’s intelligence…
Video. Euronews on the ground as hundreds of thousands protest in Pariseuronews · 33 h agoGo beyond the headlines with Euronews EU.XL — a deep dive into the EU’s key policies and decisions through videos, explainers, polls, and a chatbot answering your questions anytime and in your language Top News Stories Today Hundreds of…
Angry lawyers and bewildered defendants: the fallout from fast-tracking French rioting casesthe Guardian · 4 days agoPoliticians have called for ruthless sentencing, but lawyers blame the politicians for the poverty, and anger, behind their clients’ looting Awa, 18, stood in the dock in the tribunal de Paris, a small, mute and bewildered figure seeming…
Message from the Editor: France on edgeThe Irish Times · 20 h agoThe French word “polycrise” was coined in the 1990s by the philosopher Edgar Morin and his co-author Anne Brigitte Kern to describe a set of overlapping crises, each of which makes the others worse. Translated into English as polycrisis…
In France, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets again to protest. The slogans were directed against both Macron and Le Pen.LIGA.net · 26 h agoThousands of people took to the streets in France on Saturday to protest the rising cost of living and cuts to public services. Clashes broke out in some cities. This was reported by BFMTV and France 24 citing French authorities. According…
France protests escalate as police fire tear gasRBC-Ukraine · 34 h agoNationwide protests in France are gaining momentum on October 24. Demonstrations in Paris have remained peaceful so far, but the situation has escalated in other cities amid clashes with police, according to BFMTV. Despite trade union…
Nearly 1,000 Arrested as Violent Protests Sweep France, Deepening Crisis for MacronAmerican Greatness · 20 h agoNearly 1,000 people were arrested Saturday as massive demonstrations erupted into violence across France, presenting another challenge to President Emmanuel Macron during his final months in office. The demonstrations, initially organized…

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43%Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen43%▼ 3
Édouard Philippe16%▼ 2
David Lisnard14%▲ 1

42 more

Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%▼ 1
Raphaël Glucksmann5%▲ 1
François Hollande3%▲ 1
Bruno Retailleau1%
Éric Zemmour1%
Gabriel Attal1%
Dominique de Villepin1%
Sarah Knafo1%
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Natacha Polony<1%
François Ruffin<1%
Ségolène Royal<1%
François Asselineau<1%
Jean Castex<1%
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Marine Tondelier<1%
Fabien Roussel<1%
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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
Michel Barnier<1%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onConseil constitutionnel

Trading closesApr 18, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$1.9K (17,132 contracts)

This week$457

At stake$1.2K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Édouard Philippe finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the next French presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions