Fed Decision in Oct 2026
93%0bps (Unchanged)
- 0bps (Unchanged)93%
- Hike <=25bps6%
- Cut <=25bps2%
- Hike >25bps2%
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
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Fed decision in Oct 2026?
The odds
92%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate92%
- Hike 25bps6%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Fed maintains rate: 85% on Oct 20, 92% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 92% | 92¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 7.2M | |
| Hike 25bps | 6% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 5.2M |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 246.6K | ||
| Cut 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 1.5M | ||
| Hike >25bps | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 1.0M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Crypto.com
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?Cut 25 bpKalshi <1%Crypto.com 2%2 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on ForecastEx
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?Hike 50+ bpKalshi <1%ForecastEx 4%3 pts apart
Fed Decision (Oct 28, 2026)
90%Hold
- Hold90%
- Hike 25 bp5%
- Hike 50+ bp4%
- Cut 25 bp1%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?HoldKalshi 92%Polymarket 94%2 pts apart
Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%▲ 3
- 25 bps increase5%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
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Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy weekA key update on inflation and its impact on consumer confidence, economic growth and interest rate policy will fill a busy calendar this week along with more big earnings reports. They all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm… -
Federal Reserve: October hold raises December hike odds - TD SecuritiesTD Securities strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% at the October FOMC meeting, despite strong inflation and solid labor data. They see this pause increasing the likelihood of rate hikes in… -
Pine Bluff NAACP asks Federal Reserve for community meeting on Simmons Bank branch closingThe Pine Bluff Branch NAACP recently filed a written request with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis asking the federal regulator to consult with community leaders and hold a public meeting before Simmons Bank closes its branch at 1704… -
The Federal Reserve At A Time Of UncertaintyEconomic uncertainty has increased on several fronts. That has made it even more difficult than before for the Fed to forecast the path of inflation and employment. Read more here... - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been consistently clear… -
Federal Reserve preview: A pause before a December hikeDespite hot inflation prints in September and the Fed having signalled that further action to tame inflation will likely be needed, markets and economists are united in expecting the central bank to leave interest rates on hold at the 28… - Brent Crude Tops $100 as Markets Await Federal Reserve September Meeting MinutesUS stock futures showed little directional conviction Wednesday morning as market participants positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting readout. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped marginally into negative…
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The Federal Reserve's Latest October Inflation Forecast Has Arrived, and It's Terrible News for Wall StreetYear four of Wall Street's bull market didn't disappoint. The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.02%), S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.21%), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -2.60%) to… -
Investors Just Got Bad News From the Federal Reserve. Here's What History Says Comes Next.Up to this point, the market seems to be getting more comfortable with the idea of higher interest rates. The Fed has thus far only hiked rates one time, but the futures market is currently pricing in three more quarter-point increases by… -
Gold set for steep weekly loss as rising oil prices bolster Fed rate hike betsGold fell to a three-month low on Friday, headed for its steepest weekly decline in over four months, as higher energy prices fueled inflation concerns and reinforced elevated U.S. rate expectations ahead of next week's Federal Reserve… -
Fed Decision, Microsoft, Alphabet Earnings Highlight Blockbuster WeekGet ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Week Ahead, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming… -
Factbox-Major brokerages expect next Fed rate hike in DecemberCitigroup became the latest major brokerage to forecast the Fed’s next rate increase in December, though several strategists said consecutive hotter-than-expected core inflation readings have made an October move a clear possibility. The… -
Arthur Hayes dumps Maelstrom's entire crypto trading book before the Fed meetsHayes announced the move himself, on X, in the kind of blunt language that's made him one of the most-watched voices in crypto macro. "The Maelstrom directional book, took profits on $ETH, $ENA, $UNI and other shitcoins. Arthur Hayes just…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed decision in Dec 2026?
75%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps75%▲ 4
- Fed maintains rate22%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps4%
2 more
- Cut 25bps1%
- Cut >25bps<1%
Fed decision in Jan 2027?
64%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate64%▲ 1
- Hike 25bps31%
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 1
2 more
- Cut 25bps2%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps1%
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
61%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps61%▲ 9
- Fed maintains rate27%
- Cut 25bps9%▼ 26
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
54%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate54%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps35%▲ 5
- Cut 25bps6%
2 more
- Cut >25bps2%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps1%
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
61%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate61%▲ 4
- Hike 25bps34%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps2%
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
73%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate73%
- Hike 25bps21%▲ 1
- Cut 25bps2%
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.