Brazil Presidential Election
94%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva94%▲ 78
- Flávio Bolsonaro6%▼ 78
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English Local Elections winner? (2027)
The odds
49%Reform UK
- Reform UK49%
- Conservative24%
- Labour15%
- Liberal Democrat9%
- Green3%
How the odds have moved
Reform UK: 49% on Oct 19, 49% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 49% | 46¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | ||
| Conservative | 24% | 20¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | ||
| Labour | 15% | 11¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | ||
| Liberal Democrat | 9% | 5¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| Green | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: English Local, Reform UK
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Reform UK fined for failing to declare it was publisher of campaigns materialParty given additional penalty by Electoral Commission for not paying original fine on time Reform UK has been fined more than £2,000 for failing to declare it was the publisher of campaign material seen by voters – including an additional… -
Reform UK Wales slated for 'shameful' Aberfan videoThere has been an outpouring of anger after Reform UK Wales posted an Aberfan ‘tribute’ video described as ‘opportunistic’ and ‘shameful’. The clip opens with Jenner mentioning Aberfan but as the video progresses she begins to promote… -
Reform UK's £40billion plan of 'emergency cuts' to save 'broke Britain'Mr Jenrick is calling on the Chancellor to use £18billion of savings to hike the tax-free personal allowance to £15,000. He argues this would “leave the average household £1,000 better off”. He said: “We can’t go on like this. Britain is… -
Reform UK's Suella Braverman claims massive taxpayer-funded water bill at home equal to 18 baths a dayReform MP Suella Braverman ran up a huge taxpayer-funded water bill at her family home – equivalent to 18 bathfuls a day. The former Home Secretary’s family got through 1,504 litres of water daily at her £1.2million four-bedroom pad in a… -
Reform UK Donor’s Former Business Links to Iranian Foundation Revealed in French Court DocumentsA French arbitration judgment has revealed that a British businessman who has become a financial supporter of Nigel Farage previously invested in an Iranian telecommunications venture partly owned by a religious foundation subsequently… -
Reform UK donor had ties to Iran supreme leader-linked foundation - GuardianA billionaire donor to Britain’s Reform UK party was previously involved in a business venture with Astan Quds Razavi, a powerful Iranian religious foundation under the authority of the country’s supreme leader, the Guardian reported… -
Reform UK Scotland’s Terrible WeekIn Politics, when it rains, it often pours. It’s rare to get just one piece of bad press in isolation, there’s very often a sudden pile-on. Few parties know this wisdom better than Reform UK, who have faced scandal after scandal throughout… -
Who Is Hossein Ghandehari? What We Know About His Iran Business Ties and Reform UK SupportThe business benefactor to Nigel Farage and Reform UK had once been associated with a prominent religious institution in Iran controlled by the supreme leader of the country, a new report has revealed. The disclosures have thrown doubts on… -
Reform UK branded ‘sinister’ for reporting journalists to policeREFORM UK has been accused of bullying journalists after it reported ITV to the police following the broadcaster’s expose which revealed racist remarks by members of the party. Zia Yusuf, the party’s home affairs spokesman, announced on… -
Reform UK handed fine after breaking electoral lawReform UK has been fined by the Electoral Commission after the party breached rules relating to campaign material. The election watchdog found that the right-wing party failed to put digital imprints on its social media accounts and ran an… -
Reform UK fined over multiple electoral law breachesREFORM UK have been fined by the Electoral Commission after the party failed to declare it was the publisher of campaign material. Nigel Farage's party was given an additional penalty after it failed to pay the fine on time, according to… -
Reform UK moves to block ‘Council of Sanctuary’ status for HertfordshireReform UK is leading efforts to stop Hertfordshire becoming a Council of Sanctuary for refugees. A dozen county councillors have formally called in the controversial Liberal Democrat cabinet decision to join the City of Sanctuary Local…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions