Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
Install
Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
53%chance▼ 4
How the odds have moved
Yes: 54% on Oct 20, 53% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53% | ▼ 4 | 52¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 461.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate
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Democrats, voting-rights groups challenge Trump's bid to block Alaska Senate certificationDemocratic groups and voting-rights advocates are seeking to join a federal lawsuit to stop the Justice Department's effort to prevent Alaska from certifying its U.S. Senate election results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The… -
Democrats ask judge to dismiss Trump administration’s challenge to Alaska Senate raceAttorneys for Alaska’s Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola and Senate Democrats filed a motion Friday urging a federal judge to drop the Trump administration’s lawsuit that seeks to block the results of the upcoming election if… -
Senate Democrat Probes Tether Payments to Ex-White House Crypto Adviser’s FirmTether is facing fresh scrutiny in the Senate over millions of dollars that reportedly flowed to a firm co-owned by Bo Hines while he helped shape U.S. stablecoin law at the White House. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., the top Democrat… - A Black Democrat has a chance to win in Mississippi’s Senate raceBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Scott Colom has a shot…
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Michigan Democrat says she will stand up to antisemitism, Islamophobia amid heated US senate raceRep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., says she is prioritizing healthcare policy in her decision to support Michigan U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed on ‘The Story.’ Michigan Democrat says she will stand up to antisemitism, Islamophobia amid… -
Senate Democrats’ campaign arm takes out $15M loan - Live Updates - POLITICOThe loan, reported in a Thursday FEC filing, follows a similar move from Senate Republicans last month. Senate Democrats have taken out a $15 million loan as they hope to expand their map in the final days before the midterms The partyâs… -
Ohio Senate race tightens in final stretchFox News Ohio Senate race tightens in final stretch Ohio Sen. Jon Husted joins ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss early voting numbers, his reelection campaign strategy and the key issues shaping the midterm elections. Ohio Senate candidate Jon… -
How Christianity Became a Battleground in the Texas Senate RaceOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are making Christianity a defining issue in the home stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate race, offering sharply different visions of what faith should mean in… -
Trump Attacks Murkowski As Alaska Senate Fight Escalates: ‘Worst Senator’Oct 25, 2026 at 07:59 AM EDT Oct 25, 2026 at 08:09 AM EDT President Donald Trump has escalated his criticism of Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski as a high-stakes Alaska Senate race intensifies, branding the longtime senator one of the… -
Texas voters cast early ballots in key senate raceIn Texas, early voting is underway. The state's tight race for U.S. Senate will ultimately help decide the balance of power in Washington. Meanwhile, in Texas, early voting in the midterms is underway. The candidates in the U.S. Senate… -
Senate Republicans lambaste potential coronavirus dealThe pushback from GOP senators shows just how difficult it will be to approve a new bill. 10/10/2020 1:25 PM EDT Senate Republicans lashed out at a potential framework for a new coronavirus deal between the Trump administration and Speaker… -
Blanche defends DoJ’s pre-emptive suit to block Alaska Senate results certificationUS attorney general calls CNN ‘crazy’ for suggesting Trump’s attempt to overturn election could lead to January 6 repeat Todd Blanche, Donald Trump’s attorney general, lashed out during an interview on Sunday while defending the justice…
Related markets
All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
65%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)65%▲ 2
- Ken Paxton (R)36%▼ 1
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
65%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party65%▼ 2
- Republican Party36%▲ 2
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
63%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep63%▼ 1
- D-House, R-Senate26%▲ 1
- Republicans sweep10%▲ 1
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
66%Abdul El-Sayed
- Abdul El-Sayed66%▼ 2
- Mike Rogers34%▲ 3
Minnesota Senate winner? (2026)
84%Peggy Flanagan
- Peggy Flanagan84%▲ 1
- Michele Tafoya16%▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions