Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton36%▼ 1
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Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
53%Texas US Senate
- Texas US Senate53%▼ 1
- Alaska US Senate47%
How the odds have moved
Texas US Senate: 57% on Oct 19, 53% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas US Senate | 53% | ▼ 1 | 49¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 222 |
| Alaska US Senate | 47% | 43¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 118 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Closer Senate, Alaska, Texas
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Anger over rising prices could be decisive in Alaska’s unusually close Senate raceVoters in Alaska told NBC News that the skyrocketing cost of living is the main issue driving anger at Trump and GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, who faces a tight re-election race. ANCHORAGE, Alaska — As voters in the Last Frontier prepare to… -
Texas US Senate race: Paxton makes campaign stop in Conroe; Talarico to hold event in TylerTexas US Senate race: Paxton makes campaign stop in Conroe; Talarico to hold event in Tyler You may also like -
A Democratic win in Texas is a long shot – but Ken Paxton’s weakness is obviousRepublicans are resorting to childish taunts to defend an uncommonly dishonorable state attorney general It’s a bit like Lucy with the football. Every few years, Democrats convince themselves that a Texas Senate seat might finally switch… -
Hispanic voters helped bring Trump to power - in Texas, the tide may be turningFather Roy Snipes is known locally as the Cowboy Priest - he resisted plans to seize chapel land to build Trump's border wall It was just before dawn in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, and the congregation were arriving for the Friday… - At Clemson, Trump stumps for Darline Graham amid rowdy protests, dissatisfaction with close Senate racePresident Donald Trump at Clemson speech / The College Fix CLEMSON, S.C. — President Donald Trump gave a stump speech for Republican Darline Graham near Clemson University on Wednesday night to help the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey…
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In close Senate race, outside groups have spent more against Hyde-Smith than those supporting herSeven committees have reported independent spending in Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race. Five of them are spending against incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. Federal Election Commission’s records show 47 independent expenditures nming Hyde-Smith… -
With midterms close, Senate control is still unknownWill Democrats or Republicans have control of the Senate Come January? As of this Tuesday, with a little more than three weeks to go until the midterm elections, it’s not so clear. There are around five states where there are “toss-up”… -
Attorney General Defends Alaska Election Lawsuit as Murkowski Pushes BackOct 24, 2026 at 07:32 PM EDT Attorney General Todd Blanche defended the Justice Department’s lawsuit over Alaska’s closely watched Senate election on Saturday, as Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski said the department “should never have… -
Trump's Words Used Against Him in Alaska Lawsuit, DOJ Sanctions SoughtOct 24, 2026 at 08:43 AM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 10:11 AM EDT President Trump’s words were used against him in a legal motion filed on Friday seeking to dismiss a lawsuit brought by the Department of Justice (DOJ) that could potentially block… -
Trump makes Alaska the latest frontier in his election power grabThe move by the Justice Department to try and preemptively block Alaska’s Senate results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses stunned officials in both parties. President Donald Trump talks with Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, at a campaign… -
Democrats, voting-rights groups challenge Trump's bid to block Alaska Senate certificationDemocratic groups and voting-rights advocates are seeking to join a federal lawsuit to stop the Justice Department's effort to prevent Alaska from certifying its U.S. Senate election results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The… -
Trump administration sues to block certification of upcoming Alaska electionSenator Dan Sullivan, right, is in a tight race with Democratic contender Mary Peltola. The Trump administration wants to block the certification of the Senate race in Alaska if Republican Senator Dan Sullivan loses, arguing that another…
Related markets
All senate ›Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
63%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party63%▼ 1
- Republican Party37%▲ 2
Texas Senate Election Winner
64%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)64%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton (R)37%
Michigan Senate Election Winner
71%Abdul El-Sayed (D)
- Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
- Mike Rogers (R)29%▲ 1
Alaska Senate winner? (2026)
76%Democratic party
- Democratic party76%
- Republican party25%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
64%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep64%▼ 2
- D-House, R-Senate26%
- Republicans sweep10%
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions