Will China abolish hukou?

Kalshi Politics › World leaders For Jul 8 · $783 traded · $482 at stake · prices read 4 h ago

The odds

16%Before 2030

Before 203016%
Before 202911%
Before 20287%
Before 20275%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before 2030	16%		14¢	17¢	$5.88	1.5K
Before 2029	11%		7¢	15¢	$6.67	3.8K
Before 2028	7%		3¢	11¢	$9.09	1.6K
Before 2027	5%	▼ 1	2¢	8¢	$12.50	628

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: China, Taiwan, People's Republic of China

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Jul 24, 2028even chance by

Before Nov 1, 20262%▲ 1
Before Dec 1, 20265%▲ 1
Before Jan 1, 20277%

14 more

Before Feb 1, 20278%▲ 1
Before Mar 1, 202714%
Before Apr 1, 202720%
Before May 1, 202720%▼ 3
Before Jun 1, 202727%▼ 2
Before Jul 1, 202734%▼ 2
Before Aug 1, 202734%▲ 1
Before Sep 1, 202735%▼ 1
Before Oct 1, 202738%
Before Nov 1, 202741%▼ 4
Before Dec 1, 202741%▼ 3
Before Jan 1, 202846%▼ 3
Before Jul 1, 202850%▼ 10
Before Jan 1, 202954%▼ 12

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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)

189.8median

140230

Median 189.8Middle half 180.7 – 203.6

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Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)

190.4median

160230

Median 190.4Middle half 183.5 – 199.3

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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)

191.0median

140260

Median 191.0Middle half 181.6 – 200.9

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Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/12 - 10/18)

310.4median

250340

Median 310.4Middle half 296.3 – 316.8

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)

291.5median

250340

Median 291.5Middle half 282.0 – 308.8

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onthe government of the People's Republic of China

MeasuredJul 8, 2026 10:00 AM ET

Trading closesDec 31, 2029 11:59 PM ET

Traded$783 (7,427 contracts)

This week$783

At stake$482

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of the hukou household registration system nationwide before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.