Bank of Mexico rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)

Kalshi Economy › Central banks Closes Dec 17 · $892 traded · $672 at stake · prices read 56 min ago

The odds

82%Maintain current rate

Maintain current rate82%▼ 1
Cut 25bps13%
Hike 25bps4%
Cut more than 50bps3%▲ 1
Cut 50bps3%▲ 1
Hike 50bps3%
Hike more than 50bps3%

How the odds have moved

Maintain current rate: 83% on Oct 19, 82% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Maintain current rate	82%	▼ 1	82¢	83¢	$1.20	704
Cut 25bps	13%		13¢	16¢	$6.25	1.9K
Hike 25bps	4%		2¢	6¢	$16.67	585
Cut more than 50bps	3%	▲ 1		6¢	$16.67	75.00
Cut 50bps	3%	▲ 1		6¢	$16.67	103
Hike 50bps	3%			6¢	$16.67	246
Hike more than 50bps	3%			6¢	$16.67	133

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on ForecastEx

Bank of Mexico rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)Cut 25 bpKalshi 13%ForecastEx <1%13 pts apart

Bank of Mexico Decision (Dec 17, 2026)

<1%Hike 50+ bp

Hike 50+ bp<1%
Hike 25 bp<1%
Hold<1%
Cut 25 bp<1%

1 more

Cut 50+ bp<1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Bank of Mexico

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Mexico Trucker Strike Set for MondayThe Rio Times · 35 h agoA Mexico trucker strike is due to start on Monday 26 October 2026, after cargo-transport groups said on Friday that they will stop work for an indefinite period. The groups, led by the national trucking chamber Canacar, cite highway…
Mexican Peso nears 18.75 as Iran risks and AI selloff hit sentimentFXStreet · 3 days agoThe Mexican Peso depreciated for the second straight day, down 0.16%, as the US Dollar held firm amid growing tensions in the Middle East and investor fears that mega tech companies are issuing more debt to finance the AI buildout. The…
Inflation Climbs Across Latin America as El Niño and a Fed Hike Keep Most Central Banks CautiousFinance Colombia · 4 days agoColombia’s annual rate rose five basis points to 6.29%, pushed by services, and remains the highest of the eight economies in the report. Finance Colombia reported on the details of the September reading. Costa Rica returned to positive…
Banxico seen holding at 6.50% through 2027 – Citi Mexico surveyFXStreet · 4 days agoCitigroup Mexico released its survey, in which most private economists shared their expectations for Mexico’s economy. Regarding the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the central bank is expected to hold rates at 6.50% “through the end of 2027…
Mexico Stocks Rise 0.36% as Airports Surge | Mexico Market Report, Oct 20The Rio Times · 5 days agoMexico’s main stock index edged higher on Tuesday. The S&P/BMV IPC, which tracks the country’s biggest listed companies, rose 0.36% to 69,258.58 points, its fourth gain in a row. Airport operators did the lifting. GAP, the Pacific-region…
Mexican Peso holds 18.40 as Trump, Sheinbaum signal trade breakthroughFXStreet · 5 days agoThe Mexican Peso holds firm against the US Dollar on Tuesday, amid a light economic docket in Mexico, with traders eyeing the release of Mid-Month Inflation figures for October. In the United States, housing data disappointed investors…
Mexican Peso Firms 0.4% as Stocks Edge Up | Mexico Market Report, Oct 19The Rio Times · 6 days agoMexico’s stock market barely moved on Monday 19 October, but the direction was positive. The S&P/BMV IPC closed at 68,970, up 0.06%. The peso strengthened 0.37% to 18.43 per US dollar. That is a gain for the currency against a firmer…
Kapital gets first green light to offer banking in Colombia, adds AI firepower with Woz dealBriefs Finance · 6 days agoColombia's financial authorities gave Mexican fintech Kapital the preliminary go ahead it needs to begin banking locally, a step that puts deposit accounts within reach. The company arrived in Colombia in 2022 by extending business credit…
Mexican Peso finds relief in Fed pause bets, but carry risks lingerFXStreet · 6 days agoThe Mexican Peso (MXN) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday amid speculation that the interest rate differential between Mexico and the US will remain unchanged, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) projected to hold rates steady at…
Dollar in Mexico Closes at 18.4930 Pesos, Highest Level Since November 2025MundoNOW · 7 days agoThe dollar in Mexico closed the week at its highest level since November 2025: the FIX exchange rate on Friday, October 16, 2026, was 18.4930 pesos per dollar, according to the Bank of Mexico. Why it matters: if you send remittances to…
Mexico Draws a Wave of Brokers, and Now Their Software Suppliers@financemagnates · 9 days agoPodgaetz said brokers and prop firms in the region "want a technology partner who is present and understands their market." Trading software vendor Leverate named Mexico a key growth market today (Friday), saying it is putting more time…

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Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

66%No change

No change66%▲ 16
25 bps increase26%▼ 10
50+ bps increase4%

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onBanco de México, Trading Economics

Trading closesDec 17, 2026 1:59 PM ET

Traded$892 (3,719 contracts)

This week$369

At stake$672

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Cut more than 50bps at December Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions