Reserve Bank of Australia Decision (Dec 8, 2026)
<1%Hike 50+ bp
- Hike 50+ bp<1%
- Hike 25 bp<1%
- Hold<1%
- Cut 25 bp<1%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
Install
Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in December (Dec 7, 2026 meeting)
The odds
89%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate89%▲ 1
- Hike 1-25bps6%▼ 1
- Cut 1-25bps2%
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Maintain current rate: 89% on Nov 3, 89% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 89% | ▲ 1 | 87¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 22.00 |
| Hike 1-25bps | 6% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 274 |
| Cut 1-25bps | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 10.00 | |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 22.00 | |
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 10.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on ForecastEx
- Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in December (Dec 7, 2026 meeting)Hike 50+ bpKalshi 6%ForecastEx <1%6 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in December (Dec 7, 2026 meeting)Hike 25 bpKalshi 6%Polymarket 8%2 pts apart
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
90%No change
- No change90%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase8%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease2%
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Reserve Bank of Australia
Search ›- Reserve Bank of Australia: Balanced stance after November hike – Standard CharteredStandard Chartered’s Nicholas Chia reviews the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) November decision to lift the cash rate to 4.85% in a 6-3 split vote. Standard Charteredâs Nicholas Chia reviews the Reserve Bank of Australiaâs (RBA)…
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 25bp rate hike, as widely expectedThe Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday, its fifth increase of 2026 and the highest level since 2008. The decision was far from unanimous, though: six board members voted to hike and three…
- Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Michele Bullock speaks during a press conference after Australia's central bank lifted its cash rate to 4.85% in SydneyThe Daily News | Texas' Oldest Newspaper Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Michele Bullock speaks during a press conference after Australia's central bank lifted its cash rate to 4.85% in Sydney, Australia, November 3, 2026…
- Reserve Bank of Australia Lifts Cash Rate Target by 25 Basis Points to 4.85%... Published on 11/02/2026 at 10:32 pm EST The rupee resists oil, supported by Jio Platforms IPO flows October 22, 2026 at 05:08 am EDT
- Reserve Bank of Australia tipped to deliver rate rise, meaning long wait for mortgage reliefThe Reserve Bank is tipped to lift the cash rate to an 18-year high and if some economists are to be believed, mortgage-holders face a lengthy wait for relief. Mortgage holders about to be hit with another rate rise could be waiting until…
- RBA interest rates: governor Michele Bullock explains decision to lift cash rate to 4.85% – videoThe Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked interest rates for the fifth time this year, from 4.6% to 4.85%, in a bid to regain control of surging inflation amid the ongoing global oil shock triggered by the war in the Middle East. The RBA’s…
- Dollar under pressure as oil prices slump, Australia rate decision awaitedThe dollar wavered alongside oil prices on Tuesday on hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran, while the Aussie was steady ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision. Brent crude futures plunged more than 7%…
- Australia hikes rates to 18-year high to fight inflationAustralia's central bank raised its benchmark cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday, the highest level since November 2008. The Reserve Bank of Australia's move was in line with expectations from economists polled by Reuters…
- RBA interest rates: Reserve Bank hikes cash rate for fifth time this year in blow to mortgage holdersReserve Bank of Australia increases official cash rate to 4.85%, bringing it to highest level since 2008 Get our daily political email, free app or daily news podcast The Reserve Bank has hiked rates for the fifth time this year, from 4.6%…
- Looking to refinance your home loan on a lower rate? Check these three things before calling the bankBanks often advertise lower mortgage rates to attract new customers – but make sure the loan has the features you want For homeowners, making sure you’re on a competitive interest rate hasn’t been this important to your household budget in…
- For Avelima’s family, every RBA rate hike means more shifts, a stretched budget – and less time togetherAustralian families feel like the goalposts are ‘constantly moving’ as they face the impact of a fifth rate rise Sydney mum Avelima Satiu and her husband, Chris, each work two jobs to keep their household afloat. For the couple, every…
- The RBA is split over the inflationary effects of the latest rate hike. For Australians, it’s a bitter pillThe country’s economic outlook makes for grim reading – with two major exceptions Financial markets and economists were of one mind that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would this week announce yet another rate hike, its fifth in this…
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89%Maintain current rate
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions