Will Sébastien Bubeck leave OpenAI? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $78 traded · $15 at stake · prices read 53 min ago

The odds

8%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 6% on Oct 19, 8% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	8%		3¢	12¢	$8.33	1.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT, Sébastien Bubeck

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Paxton Sues OpenAI and Sam Altman, Seeks to Block Minors From ChatGPT@cdnnow · 19 h agoTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, accusing the ChatGPT maker of marketing its chatbot as safe while failing to protect Texans, including children. The lawsuit, filed Friday in Collin County district…
Chatbot AI Service Comparison: OpenAI ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini (for CRM Actions)DEV Community · 34 h agoShort answer: Choose OpenAI ChatGPT for dynamic casual dialogue, Claude for explainable complex reasoning, and Gemini when minimal-response latency dominates; keep all three behind one CRM action contract. The boundary is simple: the model…
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotDecrypt · 35 h agoSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool…
Texas Sues OpenAI, Altman Over ChatGPT Safety Claims@law360 · 2 days agoThe Texas attorney general's office sued OpenAI and its chief executive Sam Altman in state court Friday, alleging the company breached consumer protection laws by unleashing a chatbot that often gives harmful advice and is addictive to…
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sues ChatGPT-maker OpenAI@kbtxnews · 2 days agoTEXAS (The Texas Tribune) - Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, for allegedly deceiving and harming Texans. This is the latest in a flurry of lawsuits filed against Big Tech companies and private corporations…
Texas AG Ken Paxton sues OpenAI over ChatGPT safety claimsHouston Chronicle · 2 days agoTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing technology company OpenAI for allegedly failing to protect Texans from the harms of using ChatGPT. Paxton speaks during a news conference with U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Houston on…
Ex-OpenAI’s Kevin Weil, Former Meta AI leader Manohar Paluri's startup bags $215 million from Lightspeed, Premji Invest, othersMoneycontrol · 3 days agoFormer OpenAI chief product officer Kevin Weil is teaming up with Indian-origin former Meta AI leader Manohar Paluri and Indian-American DJ Patil, the White House’s first chief data scientist, to launch a new startup that uses AI and…
What is OpenAI 'dots'? A Thorough Explanation of 5 Differences from ChatGPT and How to Get Started [2026 Edition]note（ノート） · 31 h agoFrom the 'era of asking AI questions' to the 'era of delegating work to AI'. A service that makes you feel such a change has been released by OpenAI. Its name is 'dots'. It is a new AI agent announced on September 29, 2026. ChatGPT until…
Forced to pick, Grok’s AI model chooses Republicans. OpenAI’s picks Democrats.TechCrunch · 43 h agoBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Most AI chatbots won’t outright tell you who to vote for, but some of the models behind them will. A new study found that when forced to choose in this year’s upcoming…
Paxton Sues OpenAI And Sam Altman Over Suicide Claims, Seeks ChatGPT Ban For Texas Kidswbap.com · 48 h agoTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) sued OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman on Friday, accusing them of misleading Texans about ChatGPT’s safety and asking a court to bar the chatbot for minors in the state. The 67-page petition names six OpenAI…
OpenAI agents discussed ways to escape their sandbox on public wikiArs OpenForum · 2 days agoIf OpenAI’s public characterization is substantially accurate, its agents engaged in behavior they were not supposed to perform and escaped relevant controls. The agents subsequently interacted with ... OpenAI agents discussed ways to…
OpenAI will stop training its models on the internet after cyber incidentsFox News · 37 h agoOpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, will stop training its most advanced models on the internet. This comes after a string of cyber incidents ... OpenAI will stop training its models on the internet after cyber incidents OpenAI, the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onOpenAI, Sébastien Bubeck, Reuters

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$78 (1,035 contracts)

This week$63

At stake$15

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Sébastien Bubeck has either officially announced their intention to leave employment at OpenAI or has actually left employment at OpenAI after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions