Brazil Presidential Election
>99%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva>99%▲ 83
- Flávio Bolsonaro<1%▼ 83
Install
Brazil presidential runoff: who will win the vote abroad? (Oct 25, 2026)
The odds
94%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva94%▲ 16
- Flávio Bolsonaro6%▼ 18
How the odds have moved
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 68% on Oct 20, 94% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 7 PM ETLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 75% → 94%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 94% | ▲ 16 | 93¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 16.7K |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 6% | ▼ 18 | 4¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 19.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro
Search ›-
What to know as Brazilians choose between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro on SundayBrazil is on the brink of choosing between left-leaning incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil is on the cusp of granting leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a fourth… -
Brazil Bettors Back Flávio Bolsonaro at 83%Bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 83% chance in Brazil's Sunday runoff, up from 76.7% on Friday, while Datafolha shows a 50% tie. The post Brazil Bettors Back Flávio Bolsonaro at 83% appeared first on The Rio Times. Brazil Bettors Back… -
Brazilian bishops release letter opposing Trump-backed candidate Flávio Bolsonaroby Eduardo Campos Lima A group of bishops released a letter on Oct. 22 urging Catholics not to vote for presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is facing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva… -
What to know as Brazilians choose between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro todayVoters will choose whether to give Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a fourth term or let Flavio Bolsonaro fill the post his father, now on house arrest for attempting a coup, once held. RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil is on the cusp of granting leftist… -
Flavio Bolsonaro, Lula about even ahead of Brazil election runoff, CNT/MDA poll showsSAO PAULO, Oct 24 (Reuters) – Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remain about even heading to Sunday’s election runoff, a CNT/MDA poll showed on Saturday. The right-wing senator, the eldest son of… -
Flavio Bolsonaro Threatens Church Teachings and Democracy: Brazilian Bishops - teleSUR EnglishOctober 23, 2026 Hour: 2:56 pm On Friday, Folha de Sao Paulo published the contents of a letter in which 54 Brazilian Catholic bishops warn that far-right presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro threatens the church’s social doctrine… -
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro face off over competing visions of Brazil’s futureOn Sunday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will compete in a closely contested presidential runoff with significant implications for Latin America and Brazil’s relationship with global actors… -
Flávio Bolsonaro Apologizes to Lula Presidential DebateFlávio Bolsonaro apologized to Lula during a heated presidential debate after being challenged over his vote against extending maternity leave. The confrontation expanded into a dispute over homelessness, Bolsa Família and personal… -
Flavio Bolsonaro Leads in Most Final Brazil Runoff PollsSen. Flavio Bolsonaro leads President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in nearly all final polls ahead of Sunday's presidential runoff in Brazil, putting the conservative challenger in position to unseat the leftist incumbent. Bolsonaro is ahead… -
Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro from the Liberal Party (PL) attends a closing campaign rally ahead of the presidential runoff, in Rio de JaneiroThe Lufkin Daily News People hold up a portrait of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro during the closing presidential campaign rally of his son Flavio Bolsonaro, from the Liberal Party (PL), ahead of the presidential runoff, in Rio… -
What if Flávio Bolsonaro wins? High stakes for the environment in Brazil’s 2026 elections (commentary)Fear and disbelief prevail among those in Brazil who are concerned about the environment. A climate denier and voluble supporter of dismantling Brazil’s environmental agencies may well be the country`s next president. Brazil’s current… -
The heir to Jair: Flavio Bolsonaro battles to reclaim father’s rule of Brazil in razor-tight electionFrom behind the bare walls of his cramped prison cell, former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro uttered four words to his son that could change the country’s future. “Let’s go, it’s you,” he said, handing senator Flavio Bolsonaro his most…
Related markets
All around the world ›Brazil Presidential election winner?
99%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva99%▲ 82
- Flávio Bolsonaro1%▼ 82
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
98%Lula da Silva <4%
- Lula da Silva <4%98%▲ 83
- Lula da Silva 4-8%2%▲ 1
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%<1%▼ 44
5 more
- Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+<1%▼ 1
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%<1%▼ 4
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%<1%▼ 35
- Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
- Lula da Silva 12%+<1%
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
69%Yashar
- Yashar69%▼ 2
- Likud30%▲ 2
- Together<1%
3 more
- Shas<1%
- The Democrats<1%
- Otzma Yehudit<1%
Next French Presidential Election
43%Marine Le Pen
- Marine Le Pen43%▼ 3
- Édouard Philippe16%▼ 2
- David Lisnard14%▲ 1
42 more
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%
- Raphaël Glucksmann4%▼ 1
- François Hollande3%
- Bruno Retailleau1%
- Éric Zemmour1%
- Gabriel Attal1%
- Dominique de Villepin1%
- Jordan Bardella1%
- Sarah Knafo1%
- Sébastien Lecornu<1%
- Christine Lagarde<1%
- Xavier Bertrand<1%
- Marion Maréchal<1%
- Natacha Polony<1%
- François Ruffin<1%
- Ségolène Royal<1%
- François Asselineau<1%
- Jean Castex<1%
- Laurent Wauquiez<1%
- Marine Tondelier<1%
- Fabien Roussel<1%
- Olivier Faure<1%
- Clémentine Autain<1%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
- Michel Barnier<1%
- Valérie Pécresse<1%
- François Bayrou<1%
- Élisabeth Borne<1%
- Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
- Gérald Darmanin<1%
- Carole Delga<1%
- Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
- Manuel Bompard<1%
- Mathilde Panot<1%
- Juan Branco<1%
- Clémence Guetté<1%
- Karim Bouamrane<1%
- Lucie Castets<1%
- Yannick Jadot<1%
- François Baroin<1%
- Anasse Kazib<1%
- Sylvain Durif<1%
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
22%Ilija Srdanović
- Ilija Srdanović22%▲ 13
- Vladan Đokić<1%
- Aleksandar Vučić<1%▼ 68
7 more
- Ivica Dačić<1%
- Ana Brnabić<1%
- Stefan Krkobabić<1%
- Miloš Vučević<1%
- Đuro Macut<1%
- Branimir Jovanović<1%
- Dragan Đilas<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 6 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions