Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory (Oct 25, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closed Sun 11:06 PM ET · $96.9K today · $12K traded · $71.4K at stake

Settled Lula da Silva, 3-6%A day before, traders gave it 1%: an upset.

The last odds before it closed

—

✓ Lula da Silva, 3-6%99%▲ 98
Lula da Silva, 0-3%3%▼ 9
Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3%1%▼ 28
Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%1%▼ 42
Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9%1%▼ 13
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9%1%▼ 4
Lula da Silva, 6-9%1%▲ 1
Lula da Silva, ≥9%1%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Lula da Silva, 3-6%: 1% on Oct 20, 1% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Last odds	Contracts
✓ Lula da Silva, 3-6%	99%	114.1K
✗ Lula da Silva, 0-3%	3%	98.8K
✗ Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3%	1%	162.2K
✗ Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%	1%	106.1K
✗ Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9%	1%	65.3K
✗ Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9%	1%	60.3K
✗ Lula da Silva, 6-9%	1%	17.6K
✗ Lula da Silva, ≥9%	1%	10.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Brazil

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Brazil’s Lula wins shock reelectionsemafor.com · 8 h agoA tougher message on crime, a savvy social media strategy, and a welfare boost helped the 80-year-old leftist secure an unprecedented fourth term. Brazil’s Lula wins shock reelection Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won…
Brazil's President Lula defeats BolsonaroBBC · 26 h agoThe Global News Podcast brings you the breaking news you need to hear, as it happens. Listen for the latest headlines and current affairs from around the world. Politics, economics, climate, business, ... Use BBC.com or the new BBC App to…
Brazil election: Lula supporters celebrate victorybbc.com · 18 h agoBrazil's left-wing President Lula elected for fourth term, beating right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro. Tears and hugs as Lula supporters celebrate victory
Brazil votes in narrow presidential runoffsemafor.com · 20 h agoBrazil’s incumbent left-wing president faced off against his favored right-wing challenger Sunday in a narrow runoff election that will determine the direction of Latin America’s largest economy. If he wins, Flávio Bolsonaro would secure…
Brazil election 2026: Live second round resultsthe Guardian · 23 h agoAfter a shock defeat in the first round, the incumbent Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is seeking a new term in a runoff with Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of his convicted predecessor Polls close at 17.00 BRT, 20.00 GMT, with…
Brazil's Lula wins presidential election in runoff voteCNBC · 17 h agoCNBC’s Sri Jegarajah and JP Ong discuss what comes next for Brazil after Lula da Silva’s runoff victory. Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Sign up for free newsletters and get ... Brazil's Lula wins presidential…
How Brazil's Gen Z helped elect an unlikely herocnn.com · 10 h agoBrazilian President Luiz InÃ¡cio Lula da Silva won reelection Sunday, defeating Senator FlÃ¡vio Bolsonaro, an ally of US President Donald Trump, in a razor-thin runoff election that capped a deeply polarized presidential race. CNNâs…
Trump Already Has a Victory in Lula’s BrazilNewsweek · 7 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 05:31 AM EDT It is easy to see leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s surprising reelection in Brazil—which defied polls, prediction markets and history—as a major blow to President Donald Trump's so-called "Donroe Doctrine."…
Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil elections comebackBBC News · 9 h agoBrazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term in office in a dramatic comeback over his right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. Left-wing leader Lula took 51.79% of votes, becoming the first president since the return…
Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil election comebackBBC News · 16 h agoBrazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term in office in a dramatic comeback over his right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. Left-wing leader Lula took 51.79% of votes, becoming the first president since the return…
Brazil's left-wing President Lula elected for fourth termNPR · 10 h agoBrazil's 80-year-old left-wing President Lula defeats Flávio Bolsonaro in a bitterly contested runoff and a stunning comeback. Brazil's left-wing President Lula elected for fourth term Brazil's 80-year-old left-wing President Lula defeats…
Brazil election: President Lula da Silva beats Flavio BolsonaroBBC Newsround · 17 h agoPresident Lula celebrates his victory Brazil - it's the largest country in the continent of South America. It is home to the Amazon rainforest - the so-called 'lungs of the world', because of the role it plays in absorbing carbon dioxide…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onTribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)

Trading closesOct 25, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$12K (634,883 contracts)

Today$96.9K

This week$1K

At stake$71.4K

In the news256 headlines today, 970 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions