Brazil presidential runoff: voter turnout (Oct 25, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closed Sun 11:06 PM ET · $1.9K today · $13.3K traded · $4.7K at stake

Settled Between 127,000,000 and 129,000,000A day before, traders had a median of 125.05M

The last odds before it closed

127.47Mmedian

✓ At least 119,000,00099%▲ 2
✓ At least 121,000,00097%
✓ At least 123,000,00096%▼ 2
✓ At least 124,000,00096%▲ 22
✓ At least 124,500,00096%▲ 34
✓ At least 125,000,00064%▼ 22
✓ At least 125,500,00064%▼ 6
✓ At least 126,000,00064%▲ 80
✓ At least 127,000,00064%▲ 92
At least 129,000,0006%▲ 3

How the odds have moved

Median: 124.83M on Oct 20, 127.47M now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Last odds	Contracts
✓ At least 119,000,000	99%	99.00
✓ At least 121,000,000	97%	93.00
✓ At least 123,000,000	96%	8.4K
✓ At least 124,000,000	96%	92.00
✓ At least 124,500,000	96%	1.1K
✓ At least 125,000,000	64%	9.5K
✓ At least 125,500,000	64%	1.00
✓ At least 126,000,000	64%	684
✓ At least 127,000,000	64%	797
✗ At least 129,000,000	6%	344

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Brazil

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Who are the candidates for the Brazilian election?BBC · 32 h agoBrazilians will head to the polls on Sunday to vote for their next president. They are choosing between Brazil's current left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro, the son of…
Who are the candidates in Brazil's presidential election?BBC News · 32 h agoBrazilians will head to the polls on Sunday to vote for their next president. They are choosing between Brazil's current left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro, the son of…
Brazil runoff election resultsReuters · 2 days agoLive results from the presidential election second round, state by state. No votes counted yet. Results will be described here once counting begins. Bigger circles indicate greater lead. What we're watching: At 80, leftist President Luiz…
Brazil votes in pivotal runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro Jr.NBC News · 22 h agoSAO PAULO — Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday in a tight runoff vote that could shift ⁠Latin America’s largest nation sharply rightward, bringing it closer to the United States as part of a broader conservative shift across the…
Voters in Brazil to choose between Lula and Bolsonaro's sonBBC News · 30 h agoBrazilians go to the polls on Sunday to elect their new president in a closely fought run-off election. The choice is between the 80-year-old incumbent, left-winger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term in…
Lula, Bolsonaro rally supporters on final day before Brazil presidential runoffCNBC · 21 h agoBrazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro wrapped up their campaigns on Saturday ahead of Sunday's presidential runoff vote, mobilizing supporters and making a final push for undecided voters. The two…
Brazil Election: Trump Ally Bolsonaro vs. Lula Final Polls and OddsNewsweek · 17 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Brazilians vote Sunday in a presidential runoff between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a close ally of President Donald Trump, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Final polls show a dead heat, while prediction…
Brazil becomes next test for Latin America’s surging conservative movementFox News · 30 h agoFlavio Bolsonaro joined supporters in Santa Barbara D'Oeste to lead a motorcade. Polls in Brazil show a tight presidential race with incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Video: Reuters.) Brazil's estimated 158 million voters could advance…
Brazilians vote in presidential election runoff pitting leftist Lula against far-right Bolsonarothe Guardian · 22 h agoIncumbent president lost in first round to senator and son of convicted ex-president Brazilians are going to the polls on Sunday in a highly unpredictable runoff in which the leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is attempting an…
How Brazil's changing working class is reshaping the presidential raceBBC News · 2 days agoA student at a rally for President Lula da Silva In the sprawling former industrial city of Osasco, shuttered factories have given way to a shopping malls and delivery app tech companies in what is now dubbed São Paulo's "Silicon Valley."…
Silicon Valley’s boogeyman in BrazilPOLITICO · 3 days agoThe must-read briefing on the people, power moves, policy battles and market shifts defining what’s next in global technology. By EVA HARTOG, SASHA ISSENBERG, SAM SUTTON, CALDER MCHUGH, CHRISTINE MUI and BRENDAN BORDELON 10/23/2026 06:55…
Brazil deadlocked ahead of Sunday votesemafor.com · 3 days agoWhoever comes out on top will have to navigate a tricky balance between maintaining strong ties to China and the US. Polls showed Brazilian President Luiz InÃ¡cio Lula da Silva and rightist challenger FlÃ¡vio Bolsonaro were in effect tied…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onTribunal Superior Eleitoral

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 12:00 AM ET

Traded$13.3K (21,106 contracts)

Today$1.9K

This week$1.2K

At stake$4.7K

In the news237 headlines today, 964 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If at least 119,000,000 votes, including blank and null votes, are cast in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions