Best LLM at the end of the decade? (Dec 31, 2029 at 10:00 AM ET)

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Dec 31, 2029 · $20 today · $241 traded · $96 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

14%Anthropic
  • Anthropic14%▼ 1
  • OpenAI13%▼ 1
  • Google12%
  • xAI7%▼ 1
  • Meta6%▲ 2
  • Moonshot5%
  • Z AI5%
  • Xiaomi5%
  • Tencent5%
  • DeepSeek4%
  • MiniMax4%
  • Mistral4%
22 more
  • Essential AI4%
  • Alibaba3%
  • NVIDIA3%
  • Amazon3%
  • ByteDance3%
  • Microsoft3%
  • Huawei3%
  • StepFun2%
  • Baidu2%
  • Thinking Machines2%
  • China Mobile2%
  • Institute of Foundation Models2%
  • Upstage2%
  • InclusionAI2%
  • LongCat2%
  • Cohere2%
  • Inception2%
  • Arcee AI2%
  • Safe Superintelligence2%
  • Reflection AI2%
  • Prime Intellect2%
  • LG AI Research2%

How the odds have moved

Anthropic: 13% on Oct 19, 14% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Anthropic 14% ▼ 1 10¢ 18¢ $5.56 225
OpenAI 13% ▼ 1 9¢ 16¢ $6.25 61.00
Google 12% 84¢ $1.19 705
xAI 7% ▼ 1 3¢ 11¢ $9.09 124
Meta 6% ▲ 2 2¢ 10¢ $10.00 395
Moonshot 5% 9¢ $11.11
Z AI 5% 9¢ $11.11
Xiaomi 5% 9¢ $11.11
Tencent 5% 9¢ $11.11
DeepSeek 4% 7¢ $14.29
MiniMax 4% 7¢ $14.29
Mistral 4% 7¢ $14.29
Essential AI 4% 7¢ $14.29 1.4K
Alibaba 3% 6¢ $16.67
NVIDIA 3% 6¢ $16.67
Amazon 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 1.2K
ByteDance 3% 5¢ $20.00
Microsoft 3% 5¢ $20.00
Huawei 3% 5¢ $20.00
StepFun 2% 4¢ $25.00
Baidu 2% 4¢ $25.00
Thinking Machines 2% 4¢ $25.00
China Mobile 2% 4¢ $25.00
Institute of Foundation Models 2% 4¢ $25.00
Upstage 2% 4¢ $25.00
InclusionAI 2% 4¢ $25.00
LongCat 2% 4¢ $25.00
Cohere 2% 4¢ $25.00
Inception 2% 4¢ $25.00
Arcee AI 2% 4¢ $25.00
Safe Superintelligence 2% 4¢ $25.00
Reflection AI 2% 4¢ $25.00
Prime Intellect 2% 4¢ $25.00
LG AI Research 2% 4¢ $25.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Best LLM, AM ET

Search ›
  • Best LLM API for an In-App Chatbot in Node.js (and Why Invoice Contracts Matter)DEV Community · 47 h agoShort answer: For a gaming supplier-invoice workflow, the best LLM API for an in-app chatbot in Node.js is a currently available chat model such as deepseek-v4.1-flash behind /v1/chat/completions, with schema-shaped JSON and a small…
  • Pewter Pregame: Bucs At Panthers - Watch Sunday 9 AM ETPewter Report · 2 days agoHome | Articles | Pewter Pregame: Bucs At Panthers – Watch Sunday 9 AM ET The Bucs are running out of time to salvage their season. Tampa Bay hasn’t played any NFC South divisional games, so Sunday’s clash with the Panthers is a must-win…
  • The best LLM for GodotDEV Community · 48 h agoEach model ran as a coding agent allowed to read and write files and nothing else: Claude Code for the three Claude models, Codex for GPT-6.1 Sol. Every task touches an API that changed between Godot 3 and Godot 4, or arrived since…
  • Pennsylvania law requires delivery robots to yield to pedestrians, yet protester still faced arrestFox News · 35 h agoUnion workers, rideshare drivers and other protesters rallied against a D.C. proposal that would allow commercial robotaxis, warning autonomous vehicles could eliminate driving jobs. (Credit: Nicholas Ballasy for Fox News Digital) Most…
  • Bizarre new soap lets New Yorkers smell just like a corner bodegaNew York Post · 29 h agoWhat fragrance are you wearing? It’s Eau de Bodega. New Yorkers can soon smell like their neighborhood deli thanks to a new soap — the Rival Rinse from Hard Rock Bet. Yes, that Hard Rock — the hotel brand. Hard Rock Bet is its online…
  • Your credit can look normal while someone steals your identityFox News · 29 h agoJPMorgan Chase Head of Consumer Fraud and Scam Prevention Darius Kingsley discusses bank scams in an interview with Kurt "CyberGuy" Knutsson for the "Beyond Connected" podcast. You check your credit score, see nothing unusual and assume…
  • Why some people are falling for Meta's Muse AIFox News · 2 days agoYou might use artificial intelligence to write an email, make dinner reservations or plan your next vacation. But would you ever consider dating it? Some people are taking that idea seriously with Meta's new Muse AI agent. They're having…
  • Cheap Android phones found with malware already installedFox News · 2 days agoSome low-cost Android phones may come with malware already hidden in their software before you even turn them on. (NickyLloyd via Getty Images) Security researchers at Bitdefender have uncovered a malware campaign called Midnight Mimosa…
  • Pacers vs. Mavericks score, photos, stats: Indiana opens home schedule vs Cooper FlaggYahoo Sports · 2 days agoINDIANAPOLIS -- The Indiana Pacers open their 2026-27 home schedule vs. the Dallas Mavericks and Cooper Flagg at 7 p.m. on Friday, Oct. 23 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The Mavericks were blown out by the Houston Rockets, 128-110, in their…
  • Texas A&M vs. Alabama live updates: Score, highlights, analysisYahoo Sports · 41 h agoIt's now or never for Texas A&M (4-3, 1-3 SEC) to prove that, despite already losing three games in SEC play against ranked opponents, third-year coach Mike Elko's roster is much too talented not to compete over the next six weeks of…
  • Delaware high school football scores, highlights, analysis from Week 7Yahoo Sports · 2 days agoA rematch of last year's Class 1A title game highlights a strong slate of Week 7 Delaware high school football games. Seaford defeated Newark Charter 21-20 in overtime to win its first Class 1A title. Now, the Blue Jays (5-1), ranked…
  • Live recap for Colorado high school football Fort Collins-area gamesYahoo Sports · 2 days agoThe games just kept getting bigger in Week 9 of the Colorado high school football season. There were some huge games up north, led by unbeaten Fort Collins racing past Riverdale Ridge for a conference championship on the road. Timnath and…

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Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

85%Google
  • Google85%▼ 5
  • Anthropic11%▲ 3
  • OpenAI<1%
18 more
  • Meta<1%
  • Moonshot<1%
  • Alibaba<1%
  • Baidu<1%
  • Z.ai<1%
  • Xiaomi<1%
  • SpaceXAI<1%
  • DeepSeek<1%
  • Amazon<1%
  • ByteDance<1%
  • Nvidia<1%
  • Thinky<1%
  • MiniMax<1%
  • Mistral<1%
  • Meituan<1%
  • Tencent<1%
  • StepFun<1%
  • Microsoft<1%
Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

54%No release by October 31
  • No release by October 3154%▼ 17
  • October 2725%▲ 10
  • October 298%▲ 5
11 more
  • October 264%▲ 1
  • October 304%▲ 3
  • October 283%
  • October 201%▼ 12
  • October 31<1%▼ 2
  • October 19<1%▼ 2
  • October 21<1%▼ 5
  • October 22<1%▼ 14
  • October 23<1%▼ 4
  • October 24<1%
  • October 25<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions