Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
196.6median
140230
Median 196.6Middle half 189.2 – 205.8
Install
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/2 - 11/8)
The odds
196.0median
140230
Median 196.0Middle half 181.7 – 205.8
How the odds have moved
Median: 194.7 on Nov 2, 196.0 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 150 | 98% | ▲ 3 | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 7.1K |
| Above 160 | 96% | ▲ 3 | 95¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 4.5K |
| Above 170 | 90% | ▲ 2 | 89¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 11.2K |
| Above 180 | 79% | ▲ 6 | 78¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 2.1K |
| Above 185 | 68% | ▲ 8 | 67¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 75.00 |
| Above 190 | 59% | ▲ 1 | 58¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 480 |
| Above 195 | 54% | ▲ 4 | 53¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 2.00 |
| Above 200 | 37% | ▲ 6 | 36¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 398 |
| Above 205 | 28% | 27¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 500 | |
| Above 210 | 12% | ▼ 1 | 11¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 3.7K |
| Above 220 | 9% | ▲ 2 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 2.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Mandeb Strait
Search ›- Yemen's Houthis advance to within 80 km of Aden, sources sayNov 2 (Reuters) - Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have advanced to within 80 km (50 miles) of Aden, the main stronghold and temporary capital of the country's internationally recognised government, four military sources told Reuters on…
- Houthis push to closest position to Aden since 2015Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have advanced to within 80 km (50 miles) of Aden, the main stronghold and temporary capital of the country's internationally recognized government, four military sources told Reuters on Monday. The advance…
- US, Iran Continue Indirect Talks as Nuclear Dispute, Military Risks PersistThe United States and Iran signaled over the weekend that they remained open to diplomacy, with both sides confirming that contacts were continuing through intermediaries, even as officials exchanged fresh military warnings. The talks in…
- Foreign Secretary Misri visits UAE; focus on boosting trade, energy tiesNew Delhi, Nov 2 (PTI) India and the United Arab Emirates carried out a comprehensive review of their bilateral ties in key sectors such as energy and trade and exchanged views on the overall situation in West Asia during Foreign Secretary…
- Petrojet Secures $170M Pipeline Deal for Cyprus-Egypt Gas Export RouteEgyptian state-owned engineering firm Petrojet has been awarded a $170 million contract to construct an onshore natural gas pipeline, marking a critical step in a broader multi-billion-dollar project to transport Cypriot offshore gas to…
- Rubio Draws A Hard Line At G20: Keep Critical Trade Routes Open – 100PercentFedUp.com – by DonaldSecretary of State Marco Rubio closed the G20 foreign ministers meeting in Atlanta with a blunt America-first message: global commerce cannot thrive when critical shipping lanes, energy supplies and mineral chains are vulnerable to…
- Besieged by the Houthis, Yemen’s Taiz Is Teetering on the Edge of Humanitarian CatastropheDisplaced Yemeni families live in makeshift tents under dire humanitarian conditions as the war; July 5, 2023. The city of Taiz in southwestern Yemen is located roughly 250 km south of Houthi-controlled Sana’a, the Yemeni capital, and 200…
- Saudi-backed Yemeni forces claim to have thwarted advancing HouthisYemen has claimed its army has been able to stop an advance by Houthi militants in the southwest of the country. According to Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, which allegedly has close ties to the Saudi royal family, the Houthis mounted an…
- Rubio Draws A Hard Line At G20: Keep Critical Trade Routes OpenSecretary of State Marco Rubio closed the G20 foreign ministers meeting in Atlanta with a blunt America-first message: global commerce cannot thrive when critical shipping lanes, energy supplies and mineral chains are vulnerable to…
- Airstrikes Hit Oil Facility in Hodeidah Amid US and UN Statements on HouthisSOUTH24 CENTER FOR NEWS & STUDIES 01-11-2026 at 12 PM Aden Time Houthi-affiliated media reported on Sunday (November 1) that two Saudi airstrikes targeted a facility belonging to the Yemen Petroleum Company in Bajil District, Hodeidah…
- Bahrain, France Discuss Regional Developments, Ways to Strengthen Bilateral TiesQatar news agency Bahrain, France Discuss Regional Developments, Ways to Strengthen Bilateral Ties Manama, November 01 (QNA) - Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani met Sunday with Director for North Africa and the…
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295median
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions