Australian Senate election winner? (2028)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes May 20, 2029 · $312 traded · $54 at stake · prices read 9 h ago

The odds

70%Australian Labor Party

Australian Labor Party70%▼ 1
Liberal-National Coalition13%▼ 1
One Nation5%
Australian Greens3%

How the odds have moved

Australian Labor Party: 70% on Oct 19, 70% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Australian Labor Party	70%	▼ 1	66¢	74¢	$1.35	169
Liberal-National Coalition	13%	▼ 1	9¢	17¢	$5.88	1.4K
One Nation	5%		0¢	10¢	$10.53	385
Australian Greens	3%		0¢	5¢	$18.87	60.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Australian Senate, Australian Labor Party, Liberal-National Coalition

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Barnaby Joyce: Liberals can’t win anything without One NationPOLITICO · 19 h agoYour essential guide to what’s driving the day in Canberra. By RYAN HEATH, PAUL KARP, FINN MCHUGH, AMANDA COPP and MIRIAM WEBBER 10/13/2026 02:15 PM EDT We’ve also launched the Canberra Playbook podcast: Check out the second episode. —…
Australia politics live: MPs to pay tribute to Helen Haines as parliament resumes; Hanson says One Nation cartoons ‘not going anywhere’the Guardian · 23 h agoGet our daily political email, free app or daily news podcast UTI treatment, contraception to be available through pharmacies All Australian women will soon be able to attend a pharmacy for UTI treatment or re-supply of hormonal…
Nationals leader Matt Canavan eyes move to lower house as pollster warns of One Nation wipeoutthe Guardian · 4 days agoMichelle Landry announces she will not recontest her Queensland seat of Capricornia at the next election Get our new political email, free app or daily news podcast Matt Canavan could attempt a switch to the House of Representatives after…
Choosing One Nation: disillusioned or just fed up?bendigoadvertiser.com.au · 19 h agoJulie Cincotta and Shaun Martindale are outside sipping coffee near a public works site at an intersection in Melbourne's outer east. The look they share is one of frustration. There's a lot going on in their ultra-marginal electorate of…
What does a One Nation MP in Victoria actually look like?Crikey · 20 h agoVictoria’s state election will be unpredictable, but one thing is for sure: One Nation is polling strongly. Whether the party can convert that into winning seats is another question, given the even spread of its support across the state. A…
Politicians condemn planned Remembrance Day protests against One Nation and Pauline Hanson7NEWS · 20 h agoOne Nation MP Barnaby Joyce has branded planned student protests against capitalism and One Nation on Remembrance Day “disgraceful”. Students are planning to walk out of school and protest in cities across Australia on November 11, with…
He had Howard’s photo on his van. Now the ex-Liberal MP wants a spot on One Nation’s NSW ticketThe Age · 25 h agoOctober 26, 2026 — 5:00am He once loved the Liberals so much that he drove around with a John Howard corflute stuck to his work van. But former state MP Nathaniel Smith has joined the growing list of former NSW Liberals gunning for a spot…
Victoria election: Voters reveal what drives them to move from major parties to Pauline Hanson’s One NationThe Nightly · 47 h agoOne Nation's rising popularity or declining support for the major parties? Residents in an ultra-marginal seat are calling for change. Julie Cincotta and Shaun Martindale are outside sipping coffee near a public works site at an…
David Crisafulli rules out working with One Nation as youth crime still top priority after two years in office@abcnews · 46 h agoDavid Crisafulli's LNP government has been in power in Queensland for two years. (ABC News) Queensland Premier David Crisafulli has categorically ruled out future negotiations with One Nation. In an interview marking two years of the LNP…
‘Give them a go’: Liberal candidate advises vote for One Nation in upper houseThe Age · 2 days agoOctober 24, 2026 — 7:30pm A Liberal candidate in a key battleground seat has been caught out encouraging people to vote for One Nation in the upper house while campaigning in the electorate that is considered vulnerable to Pauline Hanson’s…
One Nation To Have Access To Costing Alongside Major Parties In 2027 ElectionCity Hub · 4 days agoNSW Parliament has officially amended legislation to ensure One Nation will have access to the independent Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) for the March 2027 election. This means Pauline Hanson will be able to submit, alongside Labor…
Federal Labor flags concern as state support plungeswesternadvocate.com.au · 20 h agoConfidence in Victoria's Labor government is plunging weeks out from an election, as a senior federal colleague expresses concern about the state party's uphill battle. Federal Health Minister Mark Butler conceded on Monday that the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAustralian Electoral Commission

Trading closesMay 20, 2029 10:00 AM ET

Traded$312 (1,975 contracts)

At stake$54

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the winner of the next Australian Senate election is Australian Labor Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions