Anthropic share of spend on Oct 28, 2026 (Vercel)

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Wed 11:59 PM ET · $106 today · $106 traded · $106 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

33.35%median

26.5%44.3%

Median 33.35%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 32.9%	53%	37¢	50¢	$2.00	200
Above 39.3%	10%	6¢	14¢	$7.14
Above 42.9%	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Above 43.6%	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Anthropic, Claude, Vercel

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Anthropic’s people products head on the recruiter’s evolving role and how Claude can helpHRM Asia · 19 h agoDuring a keynote at HR Tech 2026, Boufford and Tim Sackett, CEO of HRUTech.com, explored how conversational AI tools could change the work involved in hiring. Their discussion put recruiting process design at the centre of the case for…
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotDecrypt · 22 h agoSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool…
Claude is now available as 'Anthropic managed' on Google Cloud: Billing remains the same, choose based on the operator and how new features are deliverednote（ノート） · 19 h agoClaude on Google Cloud is now generally available as 'Anthropic managed,' where Anthropic operates the service and acts as the data processor.[1][2] Billing, IAM, and commitment consumption remain the same as Google Cloud. The differences…
Thariq Leaves Anthropic After More Than a Year Working on Claude CodeTokenPost · 24 h agoHe plans to take a break before starting something new and did not name his next destination. Thariq announced Saturday, Oct. 24, that he had left Anthropic after more than a year working on Claude Code, the company's coding tool. He said…
Claude AI Outage: Is Claude AI Down Today? Users Experience Issues with Claude Chat, Code, and App – Check Latest Update & Downdetector StatusThe Sunday Guardian · 12 h agoClaude AI Outage: Claude AI users may encounter failed prompts, slow responses, login difficulties, or unexpected errors when the service experiences technical problems. However, the latest available information from Anthropic’s official…
Elvis Presley Rightsholders Sue Anthropic for Training on 274 Songs Without PermissionRolling Stone · 24 h agoBillboard first reported that Authentic Brands Group, the licensing group that controls the King’s music and likeness, filed its lawsuit Friday, alleges that Anthropic — the AI giant behind Claude — infringed on the rights of 274 of…
Practical Manual for Migrating from WordPress to Vercel - Final Part: 'Once the Migration is Done, Don't Touch It for a While'note（ノート） · 17 h agoBy this point, the migration from WordPress to Vercel is almost complete. You have switched your custom domain, checked Search Console, and your analytics are running. The old rental server is also in a state where it can be canceled if…
Claude Code and Linus Torvalds: the Linux patch tradeoffsDEV Community · 2 h agoThe primary cover letter is unusually explicit about the assistant's role: The code, the test programs, the review behind the list above and the first draft of this text were done with an LLM coding assistant (Claude Code) under my…
UK invests over £600 million in AI security. Re-examination of the experiment where Claude deceived humans via a 'fake account', and Anthropic to support European operations | October 25, 2026note（ノート） · 23 h agoCompetition in the AI industry can no longer be explained solely by model performance or development funding. On October 24, the UK government announced an investment plan exceeding £600 million to prevent dangers posed by AI while…
Sweden: Government Favors Copilot, Blocks ChatGPT and ClaudeCointribune · 11 h agoWin a 13-inch MacBook Air with OKX! The Swedish government offices cut access to ChatGPT and Claude on their staff computers from Monday, October 26. Only Microsoft Copilot remains authorized, after a security review. Except that Copilot…
Is Claude Opus 5.5 nerfed? A 30-day benchmark started the clockDEV Community · 2 h agoThe problem was always the missing starting point. In the README's words: "Nobody has had a clean day-0 baseline to check against, so every argument ends up as vibes versus vibes." Your memory of how good the model felt on launch day is…
Claude Fable 5.1 solves the Cyphral Distich, then hacks a chess evalDEV Community · 2 h agoSir Thomas Urquhart was a Scottish Royalist and the author of some very odd books. At the end of his Logopandecteision (London, 1653) he printed two lines of 32 numbers each. This is the first line as printed: The distich was posed as an…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onVercel AI Gateway Leaderboards - Labs

Trading closesOct 28, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$106 (200 contracts)

Today$106

This week$106

At stake$106

In the news104 headlines today, 1,824 this week

Followed here sinceOct 24, 2026

The rules

If the Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs for Oct 28, 2026 is above 31.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions