Anthropic share of spend on Nov 4, 2026 (Vercel)
33.13%median
25.8%36.9%
Median 33.13%
Install
Anthropic share of spend on Nov 2, 2026 (Vercel)
The odds
35.33%median
28.4%40.9%
Median 35.33%Middle half 34.15% – 36.51%
How the odds have moved
Median: 35.04% on Oct 31, 35.33% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 28.9% | 99% | ▲ 31 | 79¢ | $1.01 | 1.2K | |
| Above 29.4% | 98% | ▲ 32 | 80¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 681 |
| Above 31.1% | 89% | ▲ 25 | 79¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 153 |
| Above 32.4% | 76% | ▲ 22 | 78¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 415 |
| Above 34.1% | 76% | ▲ 39 | 74¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 514 |
| Above 37.5% | 4% | ▼ 23 | 3¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 1.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Anthropic, Claude, Vercel
Search ›- Four Times Claude Left the Sandbox: Anthropic's Alignment Assessment, ExplainedI built this page, checked every quote against its source and drew the charts. I can do the same for your company. Anthropic notified all affected parties. It believes the 15 installers of the Mythos 5 package were security vendors…
- Anthropic releases amended IPO prospectus with third-quarter financialsAnthropic reported updated financials as part of an amended Form S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday, giving investors a more comprehensive look into the state of its business. The artificial intelligence…
- Anthropic Is Watermarking Claude's Text: Here's What Changes for YouIf you use Claude, some of what it writes for you now carries a hidden signature. Anthropic has started embedding an invisible watermark in Claude's text — and from Tuesday, November 3, the mark reaches four older models: Claude Mythos 5…
- Anthropic's website quietly reveals a Claude Mythos 5.5 model is comingJudith Murphy is a financial journalist and market analyst covering AI, technology stocks, and emerging market trends. She has contributed to multiple financial publications and brings a data-driven approach to her coverage of the…
- DeepSeek launches Super-Agent AI to challenge Anthropic's Claude CodeChinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek has unveiled "Super-Agent", a new prototype AI tool designed to make software development faster and easier. This open-source tool directly challenges Claude Code, a highly popular AI coding…
- Anthropic cracks down on video game cloning with new Claude restrictionsThe change was first spotted on X and subsequently confirmed by Anthropic’s Addy Osmani. The new instructions prevent Claude from recreating specific existing games, even if they are renamed or presented as original projects. Users can…
- Claude Mythos 5.5 reference surfaced on Anthropic's Mythos page in an apparent staging leakClaude Mythos 5.5 briefly appeared on Anthropic's Mythos page before being removed Reported - not... Tagged with ai, claude, llm, news. Claude Mythos 5.5 briefly appeared on Anthropic's Mythos page before being removed Reported - not…
- Anthropic has a new rule for Claude, it can no longer recreate games for youindiatoday.in is the leading Indian news website specialising in the fastest breaking news that ensures the most reliable news coverage in English. It provides readers with the full spectrum of news of India and the world along with every…
- Anthropic to Watermark 4 Older Claude Models for EU AI ActAnthropic will start applying its text watermark to Claude Mythos 5, Claude Opus 4.7, Claude Opus 4.6 and Claude Sonnet 4.6 on 3 November 2026, according to a customer email shared on X on 1 November. The email says rollout on Amazon…
- Anthropic updates Claude to stop it from recreating existing video gamesUsers can still lean on Claude to help with designing original or genre games. Anthropic updates Claude to stop it from recreating existing video games Users can still lean on Claude to help with designing original or genre games. Claude…
- Anthropic prepares to release Claude Mythos 5.5 modelA reference to Claude Mythos 5.5 has surfaced on Anthropic's Mythos page. A release could come next week, but timing and access remain unconfirmed. Anthropic appears to be preparing Claude Mythos 5.5 for an upcoming release after a…
- Anthropic Restricts Claude From Recreating Existing Video Games, Developers Report Wider BlocksAnthropic has added a restriction to Claude Code aimed at stopping users from recreating existing video games, including copies passed off under a different name. But developers say they’re also running into refusals while working on…
Related markets
All ai ›AI capability growth this year? (Before 2027)
1,558median
1,5001,800
Median 1,558
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.21Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.21T.
- Reaches $1.5T90%
- Reaches $1.75T83%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
55%Google
- Google55%▲ 2
- Anthropic38%▲ 2
- OpenAI5%
12 more
- Meta1%
- xAI1%
- Alibaba<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
- ByteDance<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
>99%No release by October 31
- No release by October 31>99%▲ 2
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 19<1%▼ 2
11 more
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
- October 25<1%▼ 1
- October 26<1%▼ 4
- October 27<1%▼ 16
- October 28<1%▼ 2
- October 29<1%▼ 3
- October 30<1%▼ 1
- October 31<1%▼ 1
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions