Will Alaska crude oil production increase YoY in 2026?

Kalshi Economy Closes Mar 1, 2027 · $28.9K traded · $6.5K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

85%chance

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	85%		84¢	85¢	$1.18	34.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: oil prices, crude oil, OPEC

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All economy ›

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in October?

85%No change

No change85%▼ 2
25 bps increase14%▲ 2
25 bps decrease<1%

2 more

50+ bps increase<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in December?

77%25 bps increase

25 bps increase77%▲ 2
No change19%▼ 2
50+ bps increase3%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

74%25 bps increase

25 bps increase74%▲ 59
No Change26%▼ 58
50+ bps increase<1%

2 more

25 bps decrease<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in January?

64%No change

No change64%▲ 2
25 bps increase33%▼ 1
50+ bps increase1%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease1%

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Russia decision in October?

87%No Change

No Change87%▼ 5
Decrease11%▲ 2
Increase<1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)<1%

10 more

4 (100 bps)<1%
3 (75 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Energy Information Administration

Trading closesMar 1, 2027 4:59 PM ET

Traded$28.9K (34,186 contracts)

This week$28.9K

At stake$6.5K

In the news45 headlines today, 806 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Alaska’s total crude oil field production in calendar year 2026 is above 153.607 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.