Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
30%December 31, 2028
- December 31, 20262%
- June 30, 202710%
- December 31, 202716%▲ 1
1 more
- December 31, 202830%
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When will any company achieve AGI?
The odds
Feb 29, 2028even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 20277%
- Before Apr 1, 202719%
- Before Jul 1, 202728%
- Before Oct 1, 202738%▼ 4
- Before Jan 1, 202839%
- Before Apr 1, 202856%
- Before Jul 1, 202874%
- Before Oct 1, 202875%
- Before Jan 1, 202977%
- Before Jan 1, 203080%
- Before Jan 1, 203180%
How the odds have moved
Before Jul 1, 2028: 74% on Oct 20, 74% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 57.1K | |||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 38.3K | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 19% | 18¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 23.2K | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 28% | 28¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 33.5K | |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 38% | ▼ 4 | 36¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 37.2K |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 39% | 38¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 21.8K | |
| Before Apr 1, 2028 | 56% | 56¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 10.0K | |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 74% | 73¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 5.1K | |
| Before Oct 1, 2028 | 75% | 74¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 4.9K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 77% | 76¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 4.1K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 80% | 81¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 4.5K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2031 | 80% | 77¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 9.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: AI model, artificial intelligence, Corporate
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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All ai ›Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
74%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3174%▼ 1
- October 2710%▼ 1
- October 295%▲ 1
11 more
- October 283%▲ 1
- October 263%
- October 312%▲ 1
- October 302%▲ 1
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 24<1%
- October 25<1%
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
92%Google
- Google92%▲ 6
- Anthropic6%▼ 6
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Nov 22, 2026even chance by
- October 21<1%▼ 12
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 241%▼ 1
2 more
- October 3126%▲ 1
- December 3193%▼ 2
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
49%Anthropic
- Anthropic49%▲ 3
- Google40%▼ 2
- OpenAI6%▲ 1
12 more
- Meta1%
- xAI1%
- Alibaba1%
- Moonshot1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.