Fed Decision in Dec 2026
76%Hike <=25bps
- Hike <=25bps76%
- 0bps (Unchanged)19%
- Hike >25bps4%
- Cut <=25bps3%
1 more
- Cut >25bps2%
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Fed Decision (Dec 9, 2026)
The odds
75%Hike 25 bp
- Hike 25 bp75%
- Hold19%
- Hike 50+ bp5%
- Cut 25 bp<1%
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
How the odds have moved
Hike 25 bp: 72% on Oct 20, 75% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on ForecastEx. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25 bp | 75% | $1.33 | 4.3K | |||
| Hold | 19% | $5.26 | 94.8K | |||
| Hike 50+ bp | 5% | $20.00 | 4.00 | |||
| Cut 25 bp | <1% | |||||
| Cut 50+ bp | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Crypto.com
- Fed Decision (Dec 9, 2026)Cut 25 bpForecastEx <1%Crypto.com 3%3 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?HoldKalshi 21%ForecastEx 19%2 pts apart
Fed decision in Dec 2026?
75%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps75%
- Fed maintains rate21%
- Hike >25bps4%▼ 1
- Cut 25bps1%
1 more
- Cut >25bps<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Fed Decision in December?Hike 50+ bpPolymarket 3%ForecastEx 5%2 pts apart
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%
- No change19%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
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Could Donald Trump Save the Federal Reserve?So who is Warsh? As an undergraduate at Stanford, he worked as a research assistant to Milton Friedman, and he has retained his teacher’s skepticism toward Federal Reserve overreach and intervention in financial markets. Friedman famously… -
AI boom complicates Federal Reserve’s inflation fightExplore the BridgeTower Media network. 36 publications across 4 industries. AI boom complicates Federal Reserve’s inflation fight Federal Reserve officials say rapid artificial intelligence investment by companies such as Amazon, Apple and… -
Federal Reserve seen holding rates in October, then hiking in DecemberFederal Reserve policymakers are expected to pause on interest rates at their October meeting even as inflation remains elevated and economic growth stays firm. Economists surveyed this week increasingly see a December hike as the more… -
Tracker: The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet AssetsThis tracker follows the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) total consolidated assets, held on its balance sheet, as the best indicator of the Fed’s direct intervention in the economy. Each week, the Federal Reserve publishes its balance sheet… -
Federal Reserve seen skipping Oct rate hike but hiking in Dec - Reuters pollInvesting.com - The Federal Reserve is set to keep interest rates steady at the central bank's next monetary policy meeting later this month, but raise borrowing costs once again in December, according to a Reuters poll released on… -
Federal Reserve issues chilling warning to 3.1M US homeowners and every American with a credit card — act before Oct. 28The Federal Reserve's latest message could reach well beyond Wall Street — straight into your credit card statement and, for some homeowners, the monthly bill that keeps a roof over your head. Buried in the minutes (1) of its September… - Concept 31: The Federal Reserve StructureThe Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. It oversees the nation’s money supply (through monetary policy), processes payments, and supervises and regulates banks. The U.S. Congress created the Federal Reserve in 1913 in…
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The Federal Reserve Just Warned More Rate Hikes Are Likely Coming. History Has Good and Bad News for InvestorsAnd the Fed just warned that more rate hikes are likely coming. Against this backdrop, history has good and bad news for investors. First, though, let's start with a summary of the market situation over the past few years. As mentioned… - The Federal Reserve: What Has Already Been Priced In?One of the recurring themes on Tech Trend Investments is the importance of understanding the relationship between monetary policy and financial markets. During the episode, Lizabeth and Joseph discussed how investors begin positioning…
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View / The AI boom doesn’t answer to the FedAI giants keep borrowing as rates rise, blunting the central bank’s main tool against inflation. Lizâs viewOne rule of investing is âdonât fight the Fed.â Playing the contrarian to the Federal Reserveâs plans to stimulate or… -
Housing is flashing warning signs just as the Fed weighs more interest rate hikesThe Federal Reserve's inflation fight is running into a growing complication: The housing market is slumping even as broader price pressures persist. Housing data deteriorated further in September, according to separate reports Tuesday… -
Gold edges higher on softer oil; Fed rate outlook in focusGold prices edged higher on Monday as softer oil prices offered support, while investors assessed the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year and looked for fresh signals on the U.S. central bank's policy…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision (Oct 28, 2026)
83%Hold
- Hold83%
- Hike 25 bp12%
- Hike 50+ bp4%
2 more
- Cut 25 bp1%
- Cut 50+ bp1%
Fed Decision in January?
59%No change
- No change59%▼ 6
- 25 bps increase38%▲ 5
- 50+ bps increase1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
76%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate76%▼ 3
- Hike 25bps14%▼ 1
- Cut >25bps4%▲ 4
2 more
- Cut 25bps3%▼ 2
- Hike >25bps2%▲ 1
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
68%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike68%▲ 1
- Hike–Pause–Pause18%▼ 1
- Hike–Hike–Hike10%▼ 2
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Pause2%
- Other1%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
69%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)69%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)21%
- 3 (75 bps)9%▼ 1
2 more
- 4 (100 bps)1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.