Predictions

What traders on Kalshi and Polymarket expect for the Fed, inflation, jobs and growth, the stock market, companies, crypto, commodities and currencies: the odds of each outcome and the ranges they imply, next to the instruments they are about.

Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)

92%chance▼ 2

^GSPC−0.06%VOO−0.04%SPY−0.06%ES=F−0.20%

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026

70%S&P 500

S&P 50070%
Bitcoin22%▲ 1
Gold8%▼ 1

^GSPC−0.06%VOO−0.04%SPY−0.06%IVV−0.04%

How high will the S&P get this year? (In 2026)

8,078high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,078.

Reaches 8,00062%
Reaches 8,20032%
Reaches 8,40014%
Reaches 8,6007%

Already reached: 7,800 or above

^GSPC−0.06%ES=F−0.20%IVV−0.04%SPY−0.06%

S&P close price end of 2026?

7,905median

3,8009,200

Median 7,905Middle half 7,539 – 8,145Above today's price 59%

^GSPC−0.06%IVV−0.04%SPY−0.06%VOO−0.04%

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

8,045high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,045 and as low as 7,341.

Reaches 8,00053%
Reaches 8,20042%
Reaches 8,6008%
Reaches 9,0005%

Falls to 7,40060%
Falls to 7,20026%
Falls to 7,00021%
Falls to 6,2009%

Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400

^GSPC−0.06%IVV−0.04%ES=F−0.20%SPY−0.06%

Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?

31,252median

18,50033,500

Median 31,252Middle half 29,275 – 33,008Above today's price 61%

^NDX−0.71%NQ=F−0.77%QQQ−0.70%

How high will the Nasdaq-100 price get in 2026?

60%32,000 or above

Reaches 30,800100%
Reaches 31,000100%
Reaches 31,200100%
Reaches 31,40085%

^NDX−0.71%NQ=F−0.77%QQQ−0.70%

Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by ___?

14%December 31, 2026

December 31, 202614%▼ 6

^GSPC−0.06%VOO−0.04%SPY−0.06%IVV−0.04%

How low will the S&P get this year? (In 2026)

10%6,300 or below

Falls to 6,30010%
Falls to 6,2008%
Falls to 6,1007%
Falls to 6,0007%

^GSPC−0.06%ES=F−0.20%IVV−0.04%SPY−0.06%

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?

7,688median

5,5008,500

Median 7,688Middle half 7,120 – 8,165Above today's price 45%

^GSPC−0.06%VOO−0.04%SPY−0.06%IVV−0.04%

SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?

2%chance

^GSPC−0.06%VOO−0.04%SPY−0.06%IVV−0.04%

How low will the Nasdaq-100 get in 2026?

6%22,800 or below

Falls to 22,8006%
Falls to 22,6006%
Falls to 22,4006%
Falls to 22,2006%

^NDX−0.71%QQQ−0.70%NQ=F−0.77%

S&P 2027 year end price range

7,864median

4,40010,600

Median 7,864Middle half 6,846 – 8,950Above today's price 52%

^GSPC−0.06%ES=F−0.20%IVV−0.04%SPY−0.06%

S&P price range on Oct 16, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

7,810median

7,3758,125

Median 7,810Middle half 7,590 – 7,962Above today's price 57%

^GSPC−0.06%ES=F−0.20%IVV−0.04%SPY−0.06%

S&P 500 Daily Up/Down (Oct 13, 2026)

38%chance

^GSPC−0.06%ES=F−0.20%IVV−0.04%SPY−0.06%

NASDAQ-100 Daily Up/Down (Oct 13, 2026)

16%chance

^NDX−0.71%QQQ−0.70%NQ=F−0.77%

S&P price range on Oct 13, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

7,787median

7,4258,175

Median 7,787Middle half 7,757 – 7,824Above today's price 40%

^GSPC−0.06%VOO−0.04%ES=F−0.20%IVV−0.04%

Nasdaq-100 price range on Oct 13, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

30,357median

29,40032,300

Median 30,357Middle half 29,694 – 31,244Above today's price 53%

^NDX−0.71%NQ=F−0.77%QQQ−0.70%

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

$789.16high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $789.16 and as low as $763.49.

Reaches $78083%
Reaches $79047%
Reaches $80020%
Reaches $8108%

Falls to $77071%
Falls to $76039%
Falls to $75018%
Falls to $74010%

Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $780

SPY−0.06%VOO−0.04%IVV−0.04%^GSPC−0.06%

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 12 2026?

$782.93high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $782.93 and as low as $770.90.

Reaches $78074%
Reaches $78533%
Reaches $79012%
Reaches $7954%

Falls to $77580%
Falls to $77044%
Falls to $76520%
Falls to $7604%

SPY−0.06%VOO−0.04%IVV−0.04%^GSPC−0.06%

Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026?

92%chance

What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?

27%↓ 10,000

Reaches 14,0009%
Reaches 16,0004%
Reaches 18,0004%

Falls to 10,00027%
Falls to 8,0006%
Falls to 6,0006%
Falls to 4,0003%

Already reached: ↑ 12,000

KOSPI all-time high before 2028?

28%chance▼ 14

^KS11−6.59%

Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026

72,335median

50,00090,000

Median 72,335Middle half 65,335 – 77,092Above today's price 69%

^N225−2.20%

Fear & Greed Index on Oct 16, 2026?

44%Neutral

Neutral44%▲ 9
Fear32%▼ 25
Greed15%▼ 1
Extreme Fear7%

1 more

Extreme Greed2%

How high will the IBOVESPA get in 2026?

$212,500median

$195,000$220,000

Median $212,500

Fear & Greed Index on Nov 6, 2026?

8%Extreme Greed

Extreme Greed8%

Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4? (Q4 2026)

98%Twilio

Twilio98%
Cheniere Energy30%▼ 1
Astera Labs23%▲ 3
Credo Technology16%

31 more

Okta12%
Curtiss-Wright12%
Southern Copper9%
Cloudflare9%▼ 1
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals9%
HEICO9%
LPL Financial9%
ATI9%
MongoDB9%
Zoom9%
Affirm Holdings9%
Circle Internet Group9%
Tradeweb Markets9%
Rocket Companies9%
Venture Global9%
Toast9%
TPG9%
Snowflake9%
Atlassian9%
Natera9%
BWX Technologies8%
Guidewire Software8%
Talen Energy8%
Duolingo7%
SoFi7%
Roblox7%
SpaceX7%▲ 5
CoreWeave4%
Medline2%
Strategy (MicroStrategy)2%
Cerebras2%

HEI−0.40%GWRE−1.54%CRWV−2.22%DUOL−1.45%

Fear & Greed Index on Oct 30, 2026?

3%Extreme Greed

Extreme Greed3%

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 13?

$776.91median

$750$810

Median $776.91Middle half $773.91 – $779.36Above today's price 38%

SPY−0.06%VOO−0.04%IVV−0.04%^GSPC−0.06%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's probability: a contract at 84¢ means traders give it an 84% chance. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a price ladder ("above $80,000, above $82,000 ..."), the odds at each level give a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way, and the middle half spans the 25th to the 75th percentile. Markets with no quote within ten cents and little trading are left out.

Where both venues ask the same question, both are shown. Markets that settle on different prices (Bitcoin on one exchange at noon, on an index at 5pm) are never averaged.

Each question opens its own page: every outcome, how the odds have moved, and what it settled on.

The venues

Kalshi · regulated U.S. exchange; prices in contracts
Polymarket · prices in dollars traded

Read every few minutes; last just now. Each card links to its market.

Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Search index. Terms of use.