SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?
2%chance
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Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
The odds
71%S&P 500
S&P 500 now 7,807.24 −0.06% - S&P 50071%
- Bitcoin21%
- Gold8%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
S&P 500: 70% on Oct 13, 71% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 71% | 65¢ | 68¢ | $200.7K | |
| Bitcoin | 21% | 18¢ | 22¢ | $454.2K | |
| Gold | 8% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $288.1K |
More on this question
All indexes ›Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by ___?
19%December 31, 2026
- December 31, 202619%
Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)
92%chance
How high will the S&P get this year? (In 2026)
8,093high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,093.
- Reaches 8,00066%
- Reaches 8,20032%
- Reaches 8,40014%
- Reaches 8,6008%
Already reached: 7,800 or above
How low will the S&P get this year? (In 2026)
10%6,300 or below
- Falls to 6,30010%
- Falls to 6,2008%
- Falls to 6,1007%
- Falls to 6,0007%
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
8,056high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,056 and as low as 7,341.
- Reaches 8,00054%
- Reaches 8,20041%
- Reaches 8,6008%
- Reaches 9,0005%
- Falls to 7,40060%
- Falls to 7,20026%
- Falls to 7,00021%
- Falls to 6,2009%
Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Search index. Terms of use.