What traders on Kalshi and Polymarket expect for the Fed, inflation, jobs and growth, the stock market, companies, crypto, commodities and currencies: the odds of each outcome and the ranges they imply, next to the instruments they are about.
Target range now 3.75–4.00%Cut Hold Hike
The chance of a cut, a hold or a hike at each meeting, Kalshi and Polymarket averaged where both list it, and the target-range midpoint those odds imply afterwards.
The same question on Kalshi and Polymarket, settled on the same official figure or decision, priced apart. Each venue's rules decide its market: read both before comparing.
Traders see as low as $149.78.
Already reached: ↓ $168, ↓ $165, ↓ $162, ↓ $162
Already reached: ↓ $177, ↓ $176, ↓ $175, ↓ $174, ↓ $173, ↓ $172
Traders see as low as $926.25.
Already reached: ↓ $1,020, ↓ $990, ↓ $990
Traders see as low as $1.96.
Traders see as low as $61.69.
Already reached: ↓ $68, ↓ $66, ↓ $66
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $174.52.
Already reached: ↑ $192, ↑ $190, ↑ $188, ↑ $186, ↓ $184, ↓ $182
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $93,068.
Already reached: ↓ 60,000, ↑ 85,000, ↑ 80,000, ↑ 75,000, ↑ 70,000, ↑ 65,000
Already reached: ↑ 2,750, ↑ 2,500, ↑ 2,250, ↑ 2,000, ↑ 1,750, ↑ 1,750
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $87,453 and as low as $79,219.
Already reached: ↑ 85,000, ↓ 82,500, ↓ 85,000, ↑ 85,000, ↓ 85,000, ↓ 85,000
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.42T.
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $97.92 and as low as $86.10.
Already reached: ↑ $90, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↑ $90, ↑ $90
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2,675 and as low as $2,338.
Already reached: ↓ 2,700, ↓ 2,600, ↓ 2,500, ↑ 2,700, ↑ 2,700, ↑ 2,700
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $85,634.
Already reached: ↓ 82,000
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Search index. Terms of use.