Predictions › News Topics › Tech and Science AI The models, the labs and the race to the top.
No recent coverage of this topic.
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.14T .
Reaches $1.5T 91% Reaches $1.75T 69% Falls to $800B 4% Falls to $700B 4% Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
December 31, 2026 2% ▲ 1 June 30, 2027 10% December 31, 2027 14% ▲ 1 1 more Google 73% ▲ 3 Anthropic 25% ▼ 4 OpenAI 1% 18 more Meta 1% Alibaba <1% Moonshot <1% Baidu <1% Z.ai <1% Xiaomi <1% SpaceXAI <1% DeepSeek <1% Amazon <1% ByteDance <1% Nvidia <1% Thinky <1% MiniMax <1% Mistral <1% Meituan <1% Tencent <1% StepFun <1% Microsoft <1% Anthropic 50% ▲ 2 Google 40% ▲ 1 OpenAI 6% ▼ 1 12 more Meta 1% ▼ 1 xAI 1% Alibaba <1% DeepSeek <1% Moonshot <1% Z.ai <1% Mistral <1% Microsoft <1% Amazon <1% ByteDance <1% Baidu <1% Meituan <1% December 31, 2027 10% December 31, 2028 17% ▼ 1 December 31, 2029 24% October 23 2% ▲ 2 October 31 4% ▼ 4 November 30 21% ▼ 1 1 more Claude 52% ▲ 5 Gemini 37% ChatGPT 9% ▼ 1 5 more Grok 3% Muse 2% Qwen 1% Kimi <1% Ernie <1%
21.6% 29%
Median 26.84% Middle half 25.3% – 27.64%
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .