Predictions › News Topics › Elections State and local Mayors, ballot measures, state legislatures and the local races.
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Karen Bass 55% ▲ 7 Nithya Raman 45% ▼ 5 Olivia Chow 65% ▼ 8 Brad Bradford 34% ▲ 9 Ana Bailão <1% 5 more Michael Ford <1% Anthony Furey <1% Marco Mendicino <1% John Tory <1% Kevin Clarke <1%
Letitia James 91% ▼ 1 Saritha Komatireddy 9% ▲ 1 David Morales 96% ▼ 1 Brett Smiley 1% David Talan 1% 2 more Michael English 1% Allen Waters 1% Martin Ritsma 63% ▲ 6 Jo-Dee Burbach 16% ▼ 11 Robert Ritz 14% ▼ 1 2 more Mark Hunter 1% Andrew Rea 1% Haniff Hoosen 33% ▲ 2 Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi 14% ▼ 11 Mkhuleko Hlengwa 10% ▲ 1 10 more Zandile Hlophe-Mkhwanazi 5% Thabani Nyawose 5% Cyril Xaba 3% Philani Mavundla 2% ▼ 3 Zandile Gumede <1% Hlengiwe Mkhaliphi <1% Maggie Govender <1% Zwakele Mncwango <1% Nomusa Dube-Ncube <1% Mina Soma-Lesoma <1% Helen Zille 53% David Makhura 24% Frank Chikane 7% 5 more Lukhona Mnguni 5% Kenny Kunene 4% ▼ 1 Herman Mashaba 4% Loyiso Masuku 4% ▼ 1 Dada Morero 1% A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .