PolymarketWorldCloses Dec 31 · $2.3K today · $919K traded · $103K at stake · prices read 21 min ago
The odds
Jan 21, 2027even chance by
December 31, 202616%▼ 5
January 15, 202745%▼ 2
January 31, 202759%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
December 31, 2026: 17% on Oct 20, 16% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Oct 25, 11 PM ETDecember 31, 2026: 14% → 21%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
June 30, 2026
<1%
1¢
$386K
December 31, 2026
16%
▼ 5
15¢
16¢
$6.25
$512K
January 15, 2027
45%
▼ 2
44¢
46¢
$2.17
$9.9K
January 31, 2027
59%
▲ 1
58¢
60¢
$1.67
$11.3K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Pedro Sánchez takes momentum at 'La revuelta'Ara in English · 4 days agoPedro Sánchez aspires to an absolute majority and David Broncano wants to vocalize better. These are the two great desires expressed by the protagonists of La revuelta. It is difficult to say which of the two has it more complicated…
Spain is no place for women and girls under Pedro Sánchez@spikedonline · 5 days agoThe Spanish PM preaches feminism, while promoting gender self-ID and allowing old ladies to be turfed out of their homes. Sánchez’s UN address was part of a broader PR tour in the US. This included catch-ups with New York City mayor Zohran…
‘Democracy always’: Lula vows no return to dictatorship in Brazil after election winthe Guardian · 20 h agoLeaders and governments worldwide congratulate Lula on dramatic comeback seen as an important signal to rest of Latin America Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian president, has vowed that dictatorship and fascism will never return to…
Spain’s Election and Pedro Sánchez: What Is Going On?The Rio Times · 6 days agoSpain votes on 29 November, and this page explains in plain English who could win, why Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is under pressure and what traders expect. Spain holds a snap general election on Sunday 29 November 2026, called by Prime…
Zohran Mamdani’s contempt for doing his job will cost him — and NYCNew York Post · 3 days agoThe Post’s exposure of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s weird habit of not bothering to sign bills into law bodes ill for him and for the city. He’s taken the trouble to sign just one in his first 10 months, vs. 30, 47 and 28 for the last three…
How Spain Got Here: Pedro Sánchez’s Eight Years in PowerThe Rio Times · 6 days agoSpain votes on 29 November, and this guide tells the story of how a prime minister who came second in 2023 held on to power, and what it cost. Pedro Sánchez has governed Spain since June 2018, and on Sunday 29 November voters decide…
Why Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez Could Lose His JobThe Rio Times · 6 days agoSpain votes on 29 November, and this guide explains in plain English the court cases around Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, how the vote works and what traders expect. Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s Socialist prime minister since 2018, faces voters…
Opposition deepfake video sparks outrage in Spain ahead of electionthe Guardian · 4 days agoVideo shows AI likenesses of people linked to Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist party appearing to admit to wrongdoing A political ad from Spain’s main opposition party that used a deepfake video of the prime minister’s wife has sparked outrage…
Spain’s Right Joins Forces for the SenateThe Rio Times · 22 h agoThis story is part of our coverage of the Spain Election 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide. Latest: Spain's Election Candidate Lists Due Monday Spain elects two chambers. The Senate is the upper house, and in each…
Spain’s opposition posts AI deepfakes of Sánchez’s wife before electionTNW | Politics · 25 h agoA minister calls the People’s party video “a colossal lie”, and one woman it depicts has gone to court. Most of the experts El País asked say the Spain deepfake video is legal. Pedro Sánchez at the emergency command post in Oliva…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions
