Texas Senate winner? (2026)
66%James Talarico
- James Talarico66%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
Install
Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?
The odds
62%President
- President62%▲ 3
- Senate26%▲ 4
- Neither10%▼ 4
How the odds have moved
President: 67% on Oct 20, 62% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| President | 62% | ▲ 3 | 61¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | $48K |
| Senate | 26% | ▲ 4 | 25¢ | 27¢ | $3.68 | $22.4K |
| Neither | 10% | ▼ 4 | 8¢ | 12¢ | $8.70 | $14.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate
Search ›-
Blanche DEFENDS DOJ's Alaska Senate election lawsuitU.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche defends the Justice Department's preemptive lawsuit involving Alaska's U.S. Senate race, arguing the legal action is intended to prevent voter confusion rather than stop ballots from being cast. Blanche… -
Inside a Senate aide’s quiet business dealsDelivered daily, Influence gives you a comprehensive rundown and analysis of all lobby hires and news on K Street. By DANIEL LIPPMAN and JACOB WENDLER 10/26/2026 06:00 PM EDT FIRST IN PI — Brent Robertson, chief of staff for Sen. Roger… -
Midterm Sprint: Bret Baier breaks down competitive Senate races'Special Report' executive editor Bret Baier hosts a countdown to the 2026 midterm elections, analyzing key matchups that could decide the balance of power. Midterm Sprint: Bret Baier breaks down competitive Senate races 'Special Report'… -
Sanders could soon get a Senate bully pulpitYour first read on Capitol Hill politics and policy. 10/26/2026 04:50 AM EDT IN TODAY’S EDITION:— Trump-spurned Republicans snub successors— Dems plan Trump target in Epstein probe— Blanche defends Alaska election suit Bernie Sanders is… -
DOJ challenges Alaska Senate ballot over voter confusion concernsFox News contributor Jonathan Turley joins 'America Reports' to discuss the Justice Department's lawsuit over potential voter confusion in Alaska's Senate race. DOJ challenges Alaska Senate ballot over voter confusion concerns Fox News… -
Republicans Could Still Keep the Senate. Here’s HowOct 26, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Certain preelection forecasts have Democrats riding a blue wave to majorities in both the House and the Senate, but there are a few ways for the GOP to keep its grasp on the upper chamber for the remainder of… -
Kellyanne Conway declares Michigan Senate race the 'hottest' in the countryFox News contributor Kellyanne Conway analyzes the highly competitive Michigan Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El Sayed on 'The Story.' ... Kellyanne Conway declares Michigan Senate race the 'hottest' in the… -
Over 4 million votes cast as Texas Senate race tightensFox News correspondent Brooke Taylor has the latest on the highly anticipated Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico. Over 4 million votes cast as Texas Senate race tightens Fox News correspondent Brooke Taylor has the… -
Trump administration faces record vacancies in Senate-confirmed postsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. As the GOP faces a… - Minnesota Senate - 2026 Election GuideCBS News Minnesota is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WCCO-TV and channel 4, CBS News Minnesota offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. October 26, 2026…
-
Illinois U.S. Senate seat among races in 2026 midterm electionsCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Illinois U.S. Senate seat… -
Sen. Kevin Cramer: Senate control looks like a 50/50 tossupSen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the midterm elections, top races to watch in November, and more. Sen. Kevin Cramer: Senate control looks like a 50/50 tossup
Related markets
All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
68%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)68%▲ 3
- Ken Paxton (R)33%▼ 3
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
65%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party65%▲ 1
- Republican Party36%▼ 1
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
63%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep63%
- D-House, R-Senate28%▲ 2
- Republicans sweep9%▼ 1
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
69%Abdul El-Sayed
- Abdul El-Sayed69%▲ 4
- Mike Rogers32%▼ 3
Florida Senate winner? (2026)
89%Ashley Moody
- Ashley Moody89%▲ 1
- Angie Nixon12%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions