Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
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Illinois Senate Election: Turnout
The odds
4.40Mmedian
3.00M5.00M
Median 4.40MMiddle half 4.13M – 4.60M
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.35M on Oct 20, 4.40M now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <3.25M | 3% | ▼ 4 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $17.86 | $832 |
| 3.25M-3.5M | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $17.54 | $1.9K | |
| 3.5M-3.75M | 5% | ▼ 3 | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.36 | $703 |
| 3.75M-4M | 6% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $722 |
| 4M-4.25M | 15% | ▲ 4 | 14¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | $3.8K |
| 4.25M-4.5M | 30% | ▼ 5 | 28¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | $4K |
| 4.5M-4.75M | 33% | ▲ 3 | 33¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | $3.7K |
| 4.75M+ | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.66 | $1.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Illinois Senate
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Ex-con former Dem Ill. Gov. Rod Blagojevich urges America to vote Republican: ‘Democratic Party has been hijacked by socialists’Disgraced ex-con and Democratic former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich on Sunday urged voters to cast ballots for Republicans, griping that socialists such as Zohran Mamdani have “hijacked’’ the Dem Party. Blagojevich — who was convicted of… -
Cook County assessor favorite Patrick Hynes vows ‘stability,’ detente with appeals boardIn 2020, Patrick Hynes walked out of the Cook County assessor’s office, frustrated, he said, with then-boss Fritz Kaegi’s leadership. In March, he ousted Kaegi in the Democratic primary. In December, he expects to return to the office as… -
Crypto is making a splash in U.S. elections — but chiefly in jabs about industry influenceCrypto is finally being talked about in U.S. political campaigns, but it's certainly not in a light that the industry would choose. A number of Democratic candidates have raised crypto as a black mark to suggest improper corporate sway… -
University of Illinois Senate plans to review Flock automated license plate reader contractIPM Newsroom University of Illinois Senate plans to review Flock automated license plate reader contract Reports of police using Flock cameras to track current or former romantic partners have prompted a national backlash. Illinois has… -
Trump looms in Illinois Senate debateShia Kapos' must-read rundown of political news in the Land of Lincoln 10/21/2026 08:00 AM EDT Good Wednesday morning, Illinois. Politics in this state has never been for the faint of heart. Republican Don Tracy and Democrat Juliana… -
State lawmakers: Cornell shows why Illinois needs to hold colleges accountableThis fall, the country has been horrified by the story of a former Cornell University student who reported being drugged and sexually assaulted by seven fraternity members in 2024. In a recent lawsuit, the student alleges the university… -
Juliana Stratton, Don Tracy debate affordability, Iran as U.S. Senate race heats upIllinois’ Senate race continues to heat up, as Juliana Stratton and Don Tracy spar over immigration, affordability issues and more, as they told Mary Ann Ahern. The race to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin is heating up, as Illinois Lt… -
What should open next in the Quad-Cities? We want your opinionIf you could bring one new business to the Quad-Cities, what would it be? Vote in our poll and share your pick. Davenport City Attorney Sam Huff will depart the city Nov. 6 for a "new opportunity." Election Day is coming. We've put… -
Stratton Leads Tracy in Illinois Senate RaceActiVote’s October 20, 2026 Illinois U.S. Senate poll finds that Democrat Juliana Stratton leads Republican Don Tracy by 17.0%. The poll was in the field between September 26 and October 20 (median field date of October 8). The poll was… -
Animals in the wild are worthy of personal pronounsA snowy owl rests along the Montrose Harbor beacon pier last year. At Friends of the Chicago River, where we work to protect people, water and wildlife every day, we already took that to heart, and our people and publications refer to “he… -
Governor battle leads statewide racesois features Gov. JB Pritzker, a Democrat, seeking a rare third term in office, among other contested statewide races. Pritzker won governorship in 2018 and in 2022. He seeks to be the first governor in more than four decades to win a… -
Election 2026: Illinois Senate 18th District Candidage Christine McGovernOAK LAWN, IL—GOP candidate Christine McGovern, of Oak Lawn, is running for an open seat in the 18th District Senate race. The 2026 Gubernatorial Election is Nov. 3. The 18th District covers all or parts of Alsip, Chicago Ridge, Evergreen…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions