Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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Maine Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)
The odds
720,745median
550,000950,000
Median 720,745Middle half 685,688 – 749,573
How the odds have moved
Median: 719,684 on Oct 20, 720,745 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <600K | 4% | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.66 | $1.7K | |
| 600K-650K | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | $1.1K | |
| 650K-700K | 24% | ▼ 2 | 24¢ | 29¢ | $3.44 | $4.1K |
| 700K-750K | 43% | 46¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | $10.8K | |
| 750K-800K | 10% | 8¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | $2.8K | |
| 800K-850K | 7% | ▲ 2 | 4¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | $1.5K |
| 850K-900K | 3% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $15.38 | $1.3K | |
| 900K+ | 5% | 2¢ | 8¢ | $11.90 | $1.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Maine Senate
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Susan Collins won women in 2020. How they break in 2026 could decide the Maine Senate race.The Republican senator narrowly won among women in 2020 even as they voted against Trump. This year, many are considering supporting Democrat Troy Jackson. LEWISTON, Maine — Tammy Green isn’t sure whom she’ll be supporting in Maine’s hotly… - Trump Lifts Tariffs on Canadian Farm Goods as Collins Fights for Maine Senate SeatAs NBC News has reported, the affected Canadian products became subject to the duties after Canada withdrew from trade negotiations with the Trump administration in late August. Reuters reported that Trump imposed the 50% tariffs on $20…
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Troy Jackson officiated his wedding, but this Mainer is making a startling claim against himAUGUSTA, Maine — Till attack ads do us part. A man whose wedding Maine Senate hopeful Troy Jackson officiated during the pandemic is now throwing his weight behind incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) in a scathing new ad. Ronnie… - Beth Bosworth for Maine Senate District 18 | LetterI have two grown children who went to public school. I worked for the Oxford Hills School District for over a decade and now work at Bates College. I have seen the importance of a good education from the point of view of a parent…
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Oh, We Got a Groping Scandal Engulfing a San Francisco Board of Supervisors Race?On the same day the rape allegation was dropped against Graham Platner, which ended his Maine Senate run; there was another minor sexual misconduct scandal happening in the hub of progressive politics: San Francisco. Apparently, one of the… -
Trump Eases Canada Tariffs Amid Tight Maine Senate RaceCollins had pressed the White House to review tariffs that raised costs for companies and agricultural producers in her home state. Maine shares a border with Canada, and many local businesses rely on supplies from across it. The exemption… -
Susan Collins Touts Canada Tariff Exemptions in Tight Maine Senate RaceOct 23, 2026 at 03:21 PM EDT Republican Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that U.S. tariffs will exempt nine categories of Canadian imports used by Maine agricultural businesses after she pressed the Trump administration for relief… -
U.S. dropping some Canada tariffs, Susan Collins says as trade war looms over Maine Senate raceSen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, announced today that nine categories of products crucial for Maineâs agricultural industries, including blueberry, potato, apple, and seaweed producers, will be exempted from U.S. tariffs on Canada. CNBC's… -
Manchin, Ocasio-Cortez are closers in Maine Senate raceNORWAY, Maine – Susan Collins and Joe Manchin arrived right on time – Maine’s Republican senator and West Virginia’s last Democratic senator, in matching red fleece, making a cheerful Wednesday stop a New Balance factory. Collins… -
Susan Collins Gets Trump Boost As New Poll Erases Jackson’s LeadOct 24, 2026 at 06:39 AM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 06:44 AM EDT President Donald Trump has handed Republican Senator Susan Collins a timely economic boost in the competitive Maine Senate race, unveiling support for the state’s lobster industry… -
What Mainers are saying ahead of the Nov. 3 election: LettersVoters in Wells have an opportunity to help the mobile home residents in their community. Article 6 on the November 3rd ballot is a proposed ordinance that will stabilize mobile home park lot rents and is available to read on the Wells… -
Maine Senate race tied as poll shows Collins, Jackson in dead heatFox News poll reveals a statistically tied race for the Maine Senate seat between Republican Susan Collins and Democrat challenger Troy Jackson. Former Clinton advisor Doug Schoen discusses the implications for both parties. Maine Senate…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions