Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)
The odds
293,795median
215,000335,000
Median 293,795Middle half 280,590 – 306,118
How the odds have moved
Median: 295,266 on Oct 20, 293,795 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <230K | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $23.26 | $1.2K | |
| 230K-245K | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $83.33 | $1K | |
| 245K-260K | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | $998 | |
| 260K-275K | 11% | ▲ 3 | 7¢ | 17¢ | $5.95 | $1.5K |
| 275K-290K | 27% | ▼ 7 | 28¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | $5K |
| 290K-305K | 32% | ▲ 7 | 31¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | $8.8K |
| 305K-320K | 19% | ▲ 2 | 19¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | $4.1K |
| 320K+ | 8% | 4¢ | 14¢ | $7.41 | $5.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alaska Senate
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Trump claims midterm momentum in tarmac gaggle, attacks Dem rivals in Michigan and Alaska Senate racesSpeaking before departing for Michigan, President Donald Trump argued his campaign blitz has "turned the whole thing around," for the GOP. Trump claims midterm momentum in tarmac gaggle, attacks Dem rivals in Michigan and Alaska Senate… -
Trump Attacks Murkowski As Alaska Senate Fight Escalates: ‘Worst Senator’Oct 25, 2026 at 07:59 AM EDT Oct 25, 2026 at 08:09 AM EDT President Donald Trump has escalated his criticism of Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski as a high-stakes Alaska Senate race intensifies, branding the longtime senator one of the… -
AG Todd Blanche says DOJ is "doing our own research under the law" with Alaska Senate challengeOctober 25, 2026 / 1:38 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — Attorney General Todd Blanche said Sunday that the Justice Department was looking to "put guardrails in place" with its move to prevent the Alaska Senate election from being certified… -
Blanche defends Trump-ordered lawsuit over Alaska Senate election certificationThe lawsuit, filed last week, cites what it argues is likely voter confusion over the name Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher also on the ballot. The DOJ said confusion over the two Sullivans could help former Alaska Democratic Rep… -
Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola delays campaign stops after car crashPeltola and her family sustained minor injuries after a driver struck the car transporting group to campaign stop Mary Peltola, a Democrat who is running for Alaska’s lone US Senate seat, and her family suffered minor injuries in a car… -
Blanche defends DOJ lawsuit blocking Alaska Senate results if Republican losesPresident Donald Trump walks past Attorney General Todd Blanche after speaking at a roundtable event in the East Room of the White House, Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026, in Washington. Alex Brandon/AP hide caption U.S. Attorney General Todd… -
Blanche defends DoJ’s pre-emptive suit to block Alaska Senate results certificationUS attorney general calls CNN ‘crazy’ for suggesting Trump’s attempt to overturn election could lead to January 6 repeat Todd Blanche, Donald Trump’s attorney general, lashed out during an interview on Sunday while defending the justice… -
Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola sustains "minor injuries" in car accident, reschedules campaign eventsOctober 25, 2026 / 1:32 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola sustained "minor injuries" in a car accident, her campaign said Sunday. "Mary and her family sustained minor injuries but are in good… -
Democrats ask judge to dismiss Trump administration’s challenge to Alaska Senate raceAttorneys for Alaska’s Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola and Senate Democrats filed a motion Friday urging a federal judge to drop the Trump administration’s lawsuit that seeks to block the results of the upcoming election if… -
Alaska Senate Candidate Suffers Injuries in Car CrashThe Democrat vying to become Alaska’s next U.S. Senator suffered minor injuries in a car crash over the weekend. Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate for the Senate seat, was in a vehicle with her family on Saturday night when another… -
Attorney General Defends Lawsuit Pre-Challenging Alaska Senate Race ResultsAttorney General Todd Blanche on Oct. 25 defended suing to pre-challenge the results of the race to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate. “We’re not saying that the federal government is going to decide who the next senator from Alaska is,”… -
JUST IN: Democrat Alaska Senate Candidate Mary Peltola Injured in Car CrashDemocrat Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola was injured in a car crash, her campaign announced on Sunday. Peltola suffered non-life-threatening injuries that required medical attention after the vehicle that was transporting her was…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions