Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
24%December 31, 2029
- December 31, 202710%
- December 31, 202817%▼ 2
- December 31, 202924%
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When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
The odds
95%No release by November 1
- No release by November 195%▲ 6
- October 19–October 253%▼ 1
- October 26–November 13%
How the odds have moved
No release by November 1: 97% on Oct 20, 95% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No release by November 1 | 95% | ▲ 6 | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1.03 | $166K |
| October 19–October 25 | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 4¢ | $24.39 | $20K |
| October 26–November 1 | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $23.81 | $12.2K | |
| Prior to August 31 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $779 | ||
| August 31–September 6 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | $100.00 | $514 | |
| September 7–September 13 | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $1.7K | ||
| September 14–September 20 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $754 | ||
| September 21–September 27 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $2.1K | ||
| September 28–October 4 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $30K | ||
| October 5–October 11 | <1% | 0¢ | $28.7K | |||
| October 12–October 18 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $50.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Gemini, Google AI, Google Gemini Pro
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Oct 27, 2026even chance by
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Which company has the best AI model end of October?
74%Google
- Google74%▲ 4
- Anthropic24%▼ 5
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.16Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.16T.
- Reaches $1.5T91%
- Reaches $1.75T69%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
27%December 31, 2028
- December 31, 20262%▲ 1
- June 30, 202710%
- December 31, 202714%▲ 1
1 more
- December 31, 202827%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.