Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes May 31, 2027 · $158 today · $506K traded · $90.4K at stake · prices read 21 min ago

The odds

75%Ulrich Siegmund

Ulrich Siegmund75%▼ 1
Sepp Müller2%
Sven Schulze2%
Claudia Wittig1%
Eva von Angern1%
Armin Willingmann<1%
Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz<1%
Thomas Schulze<1%
Lydia Hüskens<1%
Franziska Weidinger<1%
André Schröder<1%
Tamara Zieschang<1%

How the odds have moved

Ulrich Siegmund: 71% on Oct 20, 75% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 23, 11 PM ETUlrich Siegmund: 74% → 79%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Ulrich Siegmund	75%	▼ 1	74¢	75¢	$1.33	$389K
Sepp Müller	2%		1¢	4¢	$27.03	$5.2K
Sven Schulze	2%		1¢	3¢	$31.25	$86.7K
Claudia Wittig	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	$4K
Eva von Angern	1%		0¢	1¢		$2.8K
Armin Willingmann	<1%			1¢		$3.9K
Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz	<1%		0¢	0¢		$2.6K
Thomas Schulze	<1%		0¢	0¢		$2.9K
Lydia Hüskens	<1%			0¢		$2.4K
Franziska Weidinger	<1%			0¢		$3.3K
André Schröder	<1%			0¢		$1.4K
Tamara Zieschang	<1%			0¢		$1.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt, Ulrich Siegmund, Sepp Müller

Search ›

CDU in Saxony-Anhalt plans to leave chamber during vote for minister-president — Politico EuropeUA.NEWS · 5 days agoIn the German state of Saxony-Anhalt, the Christian Democratic Union plans for its lawmakers to leave the parliamentary chamber during the first two secret rounds of the December vote for a new minister-president. In this way, the party…
German migrant groups demand safeguards against possible AfD ruleYeni Şafak English · 8 days agoThe Turkish Community in Germany and three allied migrant organizations on Monday urged Chancellor Friedrich Merz to establish legal and administrative safeguards protecting migrants and asylum seekers from a potential state government…
Germany’s AfD and leftist BSW call for end to help for UkraineSRN News · 12 days agoChancellor Friedrich Merz’s national government is Europe’s biggest supplier of military aid to Kyiv and has repeatedly restated its support, blaming the war on Russia, which invaded Ukraine in 2022. The motion was passed on the opening…
In Germany, the parliament of one of the federal states is demanding an end to aid for Ukraine and the lifting of sanctions against RussiaUkrainian National News (UNN) · 12 days agoOctober 15 2026, 03:38 AM • 2384 views Members of the AfD and BSW in Saxony-Anhalt called for an end to aid for Ukraine and the lifting of sanctions against Russia. Berlin rejected the demands. The parliament of the German federal state of…
CDU in Saxony-Anhalt to walk out of chamber rather than risk votes for AfDBrussels Signal · 13 days agoThe Christian Democratic Union (CDU) parliamentary group in the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag, the state parliament of a federal state in eastern Germany, has agreed that its 15 members will leave the chamber during the planned December election…
Far-right and far-left parties pass motion in German state to end Ukraine aidTürkiye Today · 13 days agoLawmakers from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the far-left BSW passed a motion in the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament on Wednesday calling for an end to German military support for Ukraine and a normalisation of relations…
Germany’s AfD passes motion against Ukraine aid in regional parliamentInsider Paper · 13 days agoFar-right and far-left parties passed a motion in a German regional parliament on Wednesday calling for an end to the country’s military aid for Ukraine and for normalising relations with Russia. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)…
Following landslide election victory: Germany's AfD poised to preside over state assembly for first timeRTL Today · 21 days agoThe far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised Tuesday to preside over a state assembly for the first time following its landslide election victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD took nearly 44 percent of the vote…

Related markets

All around the world ›

Elections › Around the world

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

>99%Student List – Students Win

Student List – Students Win>99%▲ 73
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia<1%▼ 74
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%

7 more

Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%

Elections › Around the world

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

>99%Lula da Silva <4%

Lula da Silva <4%>99%▲ 82
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+<1%▼ 1
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%<1%▼ 5

5 more

Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%<1%▼ 36
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%<1%▼ 38
Lula da Silva 4-8%<1%▼ 1
Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
Lula da Silva 12%+<1%

Elections › Around the world

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

73%Yashar

Yashar73%▲ 3
Likud26%▼ 3
Together<1%

3 more

Shas<1%
The Democrats<1%
Otzma Yehudit<1%

Elections › Around the world

Next French Presidential Election

45%Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen45%▲ 1
Édouard Philippe18%▲ 2
David Lisnard14%

42 more

Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%
Raphaël Glucksmann3%▼ 1
François Hollande3%
Bruno Retailleau1%
Éric Zemmour1%
Jordan Bardella1%
Gabriel Attal1%
Dominique de Villepin1%
Sarah Knafo1%
Christine Lagarde<1%
Xavier Bertrand<1%
Sébastien Lecornu<1%
Marion Maréchal<1%
François Ruffin<1%
Ségolène Royal<1%
François Asselineau<1%
Jean Castex<1%
Natacha Polony<1%
Laurent Wauquiez<1%
Marine Tondelier<1%
Fabien Roussel<1%
Olivier Faure<1%
Clémentine Autain<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
Michel Barnier<1%
Valérie Pécresse<1%
François Bayrou<1%
Élisabeth Borne<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
Gérald Darmanin<1%
Carole Delga<1%
Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
Manuel Bompard<1%
Mathilde Panot<1%
Juan Branco<1%
Clémence Guetté<1%
Karim Bouamrane<1%
Lucie Castets<1%
Yannick Jadot<1%
François Baroin<1%
Anasse Kazib<1%
Sylvain Durif<1%

Elections › Around the world

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

21.6median

1639

Median 21.6Middle half 19.1 – 23.8

Elections › Around the world

Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

56%Gadi Eizenkot

Gadi Eizenkot56%
Benjamin Netanyahu23%▼ 3
Naftali Bennett6%▼ 6

15 more

Avigdor Lieberman2%▼ 1
Yair Lapid1%
Benny Gantz1%
Yariv Levin1%
Yair Golan1%
Itamar Ben Gvir1%
Yossi Cohen1%
Israel Katz1%
Gideon Sa'ar1%
Ayelet Shaked1%
Amir Ohana1%
Moshe Feiglin1%
Yoaz Hendel1%
Nir Barkat1%
Yuli Edelstein1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesMay 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$506K

Today$158

This week$22.4K

At stake$90.4K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt; however, a consensus of credible reporting may

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions