US Real GDP (Q3 2026)
3.03%median
-4.5%5.5%
Median 3.03%Middle half 2.18% – 4%
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US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
The odds
3.11%median
0%3.5%
Median 3.11%Middle half 2.74% – 3.31%
How the odds have moved
Median: 3.14% on Oct 20, 3.11% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <0.5% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $1.7K | ||
| 0.5–1.0% | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1.4K | ||
| 1.0–1.5% | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $38.46 | $1.4K | |
| 1.5–2.0% | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 8¢ | $13.33 | $1.6K |
| 2.0–2.5% | 8% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $4K |
| 2.5–3.0% | 20% | ▼ 2 | 19¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | $5.4K |
| ≥3.0% | 64% | ▲ 2 | 64¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | $49K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on ForecastEx
- US GDP growth in Q3 2026?MedianPolymarket 3.11%ForecastEx 3.03%0.08 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?MedianKalshi 3.16%Polymarket 3.11%0.05 pts apart
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.16%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.16%Middle half 2.64% – 3.6%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: GDP, economic growth
Search ›-
Ammar Bin Humaid Reviews Etihad Credit Bureau’s Plans To Support Economic GrowthMohammad Ali (@ChaudhryMAli88) Published October 26, 2026 | 06:15 PM AJMAN, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News / WAM - 26th Oct, 2026) H.H. Sheikh Ammar bin Humaid Al Nuaimi, Crown Prince of Ajman and Chairman of Ajman Executive Council… -
‘False prosperity’ - Tomlinson questions benefits of Jamaica’s economic growthSenator Cleveland Tomlinson says while the Government boasts about its successful management of the economy, the lived experience of ordinary Jamaicans are not in sync with that claim. “We are not only concerned about an economy on paper… -
Long stretch of London’s Oxford Street now closed to buses, cars and taxis in bid to boost economic growthPart of London’s Oxford St has gone permanently traffic-free in an effort to revitalise the area and create a new public space to boost economic growth. An almost 1km section of Britain’s busiest shopping thoroughfare was now closed to… -
Hungary can learn from Korea's state-led economic growth model, expert saysParticipants to the seminar, titled "Hungary's Economic Strategy: Lessons from Korea's Development Experience," pose at Sookmyung Women's University in Seoul, Oct. 22. Courtesy of Sookmyung Women's University Korea's state-led economic… - Turning Clean Energy Investment into Economic Growth in North CarolinaRTI Leverages advanced analytics, data science, AI and digital systems to deliver solutions with impact. To evaluate the combined impacts of renewable energy and energy efficiency investments in North Carolina between 2007 to 2024. RTI…
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Cambodia resets economic growth with small industries, smart agriculturePHNOM PENH: Cambodia is prioritising small-scale manufacturing industries and high-impact agriculture to drive its next phase of growth, as an economic slowdown and mounting headwinds pose challenges. Weak tourism, rising fuel costs and… -
Navi Mumbai: HARHAR 2026 Brings Hindu-Owned Food And Hospitality Businesses Together To Boost Economic GrowthHindu-owned restaurants, hotels and food businesses have come together under the Hindu Association of Restaurants, Hotels, Aahar and Refreshments (HARHAR), an initiative supported by the World Hindu Economic Forum (WHEF), to strengthen… -
AI capex boom is not aggressive, relative to GDP: LGT Private BankStefan Hofer from LGT Private Bank explains why he remains bullish on AI despite possible credit stress among weaker players, noting that the current capex boom is not aggressive relative to GDP. He does not see a prolonged downturn… -
Leveraging Africa’s Raw Materials For Industrialisation, Economic GrowthAfrica is no doubt a land of immense human and natural resources. It should, or could, have been a global power in industrialisation by adding value to its vast raw materials through processing them into finished goods. However, the… -
World Bank upgrades Nigeria, other African countries’ economic growth outlook for 2021The World Bank has upgraded its outlook on Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth in 2021 from -5.1 per cent to 3.4 per cent growth after a two per cent contraction last year. Although, the outlook is still largely exposed to uncertainty and risks… -
A Perfect Storm for Bitcoin? Fed, PCE, GDP and Big Tech Earnings AheadBitcoin, crypto, and the overall financial system enter one of the busiest macro weeks of the year with the Federal Reserve, fresh inflation and GDP data, and a wave of Big Tech earnings all arriving within days. With BTC already… -
‘BC is definitely blue’: Lorne Doerkson promises tax cuts and economic growth in victory speechDubai Strawberry Cups + Dirty Sodas Handmade in North Saanich: Premium Merino wool clothing for the whole family. Speaking to an enthusiastic crowd of supporters on Saturday, October 24th, Lorne Doerkson opened his victory speech with a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions