US Real GDP (Q3 2026)
3.03%median
-4.5%5.5%
Median 3.03%Middle half 2.18% – 4%
Install
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
The odds
3.33%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.33%Middle half 2.7% – 3.91%
How the odds have moved
Median: 3.32% on Oct 20, 3.33% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 100% | 99¢ | 6.8K | |||
| Above 0.5% | 100% | ▲ 1 | 99¢ | 2.4K | ||
| Above 1.0% | 99% | ▲ 1 | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 9.7K |
| Above 1.5% | 96% | 94¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 15.2K | |
| Above 2.0% | 88% | ▼ 2 | 87¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 75.0K |
| Above 2.5% | 81% | ▼ 5 | 80¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | 30.3K |
| Above 3.0% | 67% | ▲ 6 | 65¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 28.1K |
| Above 3.5% | 41% | ▲ 11 | 39¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 21.1K |
| Above 4.0% | 22% | ▲ 1 | 19¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 89.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on ForecastEx
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?MedianKalshi 3.33%ForecastEx 3.03%0.29 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?MedianKalshi 3.33%Polymarket 3.14%0.18 pts apart
US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.14%median
0%3.5%
Median 3.14%Middle half 2.85% – 3.32%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: GDP, economic growth
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All growth & recession ›US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.2%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.2%Middle half 1.19% – 3.05%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.13%
US real GDP growth in Q2 2027?
2.05%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.05%Middle half 0.8% – 3.13%
New Hampshire maple syrup production in 2027
147,925median
120,000180,000
Median 147,925Middle half 137,143 – 158,864
Arkansas broiler production in 2026
7.94median
7.408.60
Median 7.94Middle half 7.85 – 8.06
Average Iowa farmland value in the 2026 ISU survey
$11,856median
$11,000$12,250
Median $11,856
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.