NASCAR Cup Series: 2026 Champion

Polymarket Sports › F1 & racing Closes Nov 22 · $785 today · $76.4K traded · $9.6K at stake · prices read 17 min ago

The odds

83%Kyle Larson
  • Kyle Larson83%▼ 5
  • Denny Hamlin4%▲ 1
  • Tyler Reddick3%▲ 1
  • Chase Briscoe2%▲ 1
  • Carson Hocevar2%▲ 1
  • Bubba Wallace2%
  • Joey Logano1%
  • Ryan Blaney1%
  • Christopher Bell1%▼ 2
  • Ty Gibbs1%
  • Chase Elliott1%
  • Chris Buescher<1%
4 more
  • Daniel Suarez<1%
  • William Byron<1%
  • Ryan Preece<1%▼ 1
  • Austin Cindric<1%

How the odds have moved

Kyle Larson: 28% on Oct 20, 83% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 26, 11 PM ETKyle Larson: 88% → 83%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Kyle Larson 83% ▼ 5 83¢ 87¢ $1.15 $6.2K
Denny Hamlin 4% ▲ 1 3¢ 7¢ $15.38 $25.4K
Tyler Reddick 3% ▲ 1 1¢ 4¢ $23.26 $6.9K
Chase Briscoe 2% ▲ 1 0¢ 4¢ $25.00 $1.4K
Carson Hocevar 2% ▲ 1 1¢ 4¢ $28.57 $2.1K
Bubba Wallace 2% 1¢ 3¢ $38.46 $2.2K
Joey Logano 1% 0¢ 2¢ $41.67 $3.5K
Ryan Blaney 1% 0¢ 2¢ $47.62 $13K
Christopher Bell 1% ▼ 2 1¢ 1¢ $83.33 $3.3K
Ty Gibbs 1% 1¢ 1¢ $100.00 $753
Chase Elliott 1% 0¢ 1¢ $83.33 $722
Chris Buescher <1% 0¢ 1¢ $539
Daniel Suarez <1% 0¢ 0¢ $607
William Byron <1% 0¢ 0¢ $839
Ryan Preece <1% ▼ 1 0¢ 0¢ $569
Austin Cindric <1% 0¢ 0¢ $637
Ross Chastain <1% ▼ 1 0¢ $451
Austin Dillon <1% 0¢ $200
Noah Gragson <1% 0¢ $200
Brad Keselowski <1% ▼ 2 0¢ $537
Kyle Busch <1% ▼ 1 0¢ $125
Ty Dillon <1% ▼ 3 0¢ $185
AJ Allmendinger <1% ▼ 2 0¢ $572
Josh Berry <1% 0¢ $200
Todd Gilliland <1% 0¢ $351
Riley Herbst <1% 0¢ $200
Zane Smith <1% ▼ 5 1¢ $83.33 $488
Cole Custer <1% ▼ 18 0¢ $300
John Hunter Nemechek <1% ▼ 4 0¢ $471
Erik Jones <1% 0¢ $580
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. <1% ▼ 4 0¢ $321
Alex Bowman <1% ▼ 3 0¢ $516
Cody Ware <1% ▼ 10 0¢ $490
Michael McDowell <1% ▼ 2 0¢ $451
Connor Zilisch <1% ▼ 3 0¢ $196
Shane van Gisbergen <1% ▼ 2 0¢ $739

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

NASCAR Cup Series Champion

85%Kyle Larson
  • Kyle Larson85%▼ 3
  • Denny Hamlin5%
  • Christopher Bell2%
  • Chase Briscoe1%
31 more
  • William Byron<1%
  • Ryan Blaney<1%
  • Chase Elliott<1%
  • Tyler Reddick<1%
  • Joey Logano<1%
  • Connor Zilisch<1%
  • Ross Chastain<1%
  • Chris Buescher<1%
  • Bubba Wallace<1%
  • Alex Bowman<1%
  • Josh Berry<1%
  • Carson Hocevar<1%
  • Ty Gibbs<1%
  • Brad Keselowski<1%
  • Austin Cindric<1%
  • Ryan Preece<1%
  • Erik Jones<1%
  • Daniel Suarez<1%
  • Austin Dillon<1%
  • Zane Smith<1%
  • Ty Dillon<1%
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr.<1%
  • John Hunter Nemechek<1%
  • Cole Custer<1%
  • Cody Ware<1%
  • Todd Gilliland<1%
  • AJ Allmendinger<1%
  • Michael McDowell<1%
  • Noah Gragson<1%
  • Riley Herbst<1%
  • Shane Van Gisbergen<1%
KalshiCloses Nov 15 · $11.1K today · $537K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: NASCAR Cup, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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  • Harry Kane>99%▲ 30
  • Kylian Mbappé<1%▼ 18
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions