Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Polymarket Sports › Soccer Closes Dec 31 · $1.3M today · $54.4M traded · $4.3M at stake · prices read 9 min ago

The odds

73%Harry Kane
  • Harry Kane73%▲ 7
  • Lamine Yamal19%▼ 8
  • Kylian Mbappé6%▲ 3
  • Lionel Messi2%▼ 1
  • Rodri<1%
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia<1%
  • Erling Haaland<1%
  • Ousmane Dembélé<1%
  • Michael Olise<1%
  • Fabian Ruiz<1%
  • Jude Bellingham<1%
  • Vinícius Júnior<1%
7 more
  • Declan Rice<1%
  • Vitinha<1%
  • Achraf Hakimi<1%
  • Bruno Fernandes<1%
  • Luis Diaz<1%
  • Lautaro Martinez<1%
  • Pau Cubarsi<1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Harry Kane 73% ▲ 7 73¢ 73¢ $1.37 $6.2M
Lamine Yamal 19% ▼ 8 19¢ 19¢ $5.38 $4.7M
Kylian Mbappé 6% ▲ 3 6¢ 7¢ $14.93 $4.4M
Lionel Messi 2% ▼ 1 2¢ 2¢ $43.48 $5.1M
Rodri <1% 0¢ 0¢ $3.3M
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia <1% 0¢ 0¢ $3.3M
Erling Haaland <1% 0¢ 0¢ $3.1M
Ousmane Dembélé <1% 0¢ 0¢ $3.8M
Michael Olise <1% 0¢ 0¢ $3M
Fabian Ruiz <1% 0¢ 0¢ $2.9M
Jude Bellingham <1% 0¢ $1.6M
Vinícius Júnior <1% 0¢ $1.1M
Declan Rice <1% 0¢ $963K
Vitinha <1% 0¢ $94K
Achraf Hakimi <1% 0¢ $765K
Bruno Fernandes <1% 0¢ $725K
Luis Diaz <1% 0¢ $458K
Lautaro Martinez <1% 0¢ $507K
Pau Cubarsi <1% 0¢ $1.3M
Mohamed Salah <1% 0¢ $1.1M
Pedri <1% 0¢ $887K
Cole Palmer <1% 0¢ $682K
Federico Valverde <1% 0¢ $448K
Julian Alvarez <1% 0¢ $737K
Desire Doue <1% 0¢ $744K
Raphinha <1% 0¢ $696K
Dominik Szoboszlai <1% 0¢ $168K
Cristiano Ronaldo <1% 0¢ $474K
Rodrygo <1% 0¢ $96.1K
Enzo Fernandez <1% 0¢ $75.1K
Bukayo Saka <1% 0¢ $15K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?

72%Harry Kane
  • Harry Kane72%▲ 8
  • Lamine Yamal20%▼ 9
  • Kylian Mbappe5%▲ 2
  • Lionel Messi2%▼ 1
13 more
  • Erling Haaland<1%
  • Declan Rice<1%
  • Vitinha<1%
  • Michael Olise<1%
  • Vinicius Junior<1%
  • Luis Diaz<1%
  • Jude Bellingham<1%
  • Ousmane Dembele<1%
  • Nuno Mendes<1%
  • Bruno Fernandes<1%
  • Lautaro Martinez<1%
  • Rodri<1%
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia<1%
KalshiCloses Dec 30 · $115K today · $2.7M traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Ballon d'Or, Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.