Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?

Polymarket Tech › Space Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $1.3K today · $78K traded · $11.8K at stake · prices read 10 min ago

The odds

Sep 26, 2027even chance by

December 31, 20263%
December 31, 202767%▼ 2

How the odds have moved

December 31, 2026: 3% on Oct 20, 3% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
December 31, 2026	3%		2¢	3¢	$32.26	$47.9K
December 31, 2027	67%	▼ 2	66¢	68¢	$1.47	$30.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: SpaceX, Two SpaceX Starships

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US military gives Elon Musk’s SpaceX access to sensitive tracking datathe Guardian · 32 h agoThis gives the company an advantage in tracking objects in orbit, raising national security concerns and fears of greater control over the space industry The US military has given Elon Musk’s SpaceX access to restricted space tracking…
SpaceX coverage network designs draw Wall Street's eye. Here's what analysts thinkCNBC · 32 h agoFollowing news that SpaceX is in talks to access as many as 80,000 cell sites to grab market share from the Big Three telecoms, some analysts on Wall Street are making a key distinction that may shed ...
SpaceX satellite system back up to full speed in Ukraine, officials sayCBS News · 43 h agoCBS News Bay Area Evening Edition Weekend 6pm CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6pm CBS News Philadelphia 7:30pm What's in Season with Michael Marks CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm
Musk says SpaceX restricted Ukraine's Starlink connection as service restoredBBC News · 35 h agoElon Musk has said his company SpaceX restricted Ukraine's Starlink internet service, after Ukrainian officials said connectivity issues appeared to have been resolved. Kyiv has not officially commented on Musk's latest claim but Ukrainian…
Calls of the Day: SpaceX and ServiceNowCNBC · 3 days agoThe Investment Committee debates the latest Calls of the Day. Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox Get this ... Calls of the Day: SpaceX and ServiceNow
Robotic Arm Grapples SpaceX Dragon at International Space Station Space WallpaperSpace · 3 days agoSpace.com is the premier source of space exploration, innovation and astronomy news, chronicling (and celebrating) humanity's ongoing expansion across the final frontier. Originally founded in 1999, Space.com is, and always has been, the…
Options Action: SpaceX volatility simmers downCNBC · 3 days agoCNBCâs Oliver Renick joins âClosing Bellâ to discuss the latest Options Action. Options Action: SpaceX volatility simmers down
Elon Musk says SpaceX closed Ukraine Starlink ‘loophole’ after limits hit drone operationsNBC News · 33 h agoElon Musk has said his company imposed limits on the use of its Starlink satellite system in Ukraine last week, after curbs led to disruption to Ukrainian military operations. Ukraine said Saturday that both Starlink, run by Musk’s SpaceX…
Musk confirms SpaceX was behind thwarting of Ukraine’s Starlink access: ‘Evil warmongers’New York Post · 28 h agoElon Musk has all but confirmed his company SpaceX was the one that throttled Ukraine’s access to its crucial satellite internet system, undermining the country at a vulnerable time in its fight against Russia. Musk claimed Saturday that…
SpaceX launches Starlink satellites from California as Falcon 9 cadence slows (photos)Space · 3 days agoSoon, it'll be all Starship, all the time. SpaceX launched its newest batch of Starlink broadband internet satellites today (Oct. 23) from the California coast. The spacecraft, Starlink Group 15-15, were stacked 27 high inside the payload…
Top Ukrainian diplomat says SpaceX satellite access is still restrictedCBS News · 3 days agoUkrainian officials say their access to the SpaceX satellite service remains restricted, despite President Trump's claim that Elon Musk has fully restored access. Denys Sienik, Chargé d'Affaires at the Embassy of Ukraine in the U.S., joins…
SpaceX’s mobile carrier push reportedly involves tapping into 80,000 cell sitesThe Verge · 3 days agoSpaceX is planning to secure access to at least 80,000 cell sites in the US as part of efforts to become a “major” mobile carrier in the US. The Elon Musk-owned company is in talks with one of the largest cell tower owners in the US…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$78K

Today$1.3K

This week$2.6K

At stake$11.8K

In the news137 headlines today, 2,119 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions